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Pablo Carreno Busta v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pablo Carreno Busta (Local)
Prediction 26.19%3.82fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.550%
Kelly +0.739%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%26.30%26.11%27.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.613.653.9029.85%27.67%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 73.81%1.35fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -8.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.04%73.70%73.89%75.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.291.291.3280.65%77.79%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Carreno Busta (Local): 26.19%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 73.81%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +2.14%E +0.550%K +0.739%G +0.016% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.00%E -5.56%K -26.92%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-12 03:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV -0.475%E -0.125%K -0.170%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -4.05%E -3.11%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -0.475%E -0.125%K -0.170%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-12 00:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04%EV -1.78%E -0.476%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96%EV -2.57%E -1.95%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-12 03:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -1.78%E -0.476%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.26%E -4.93%K -23.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 03:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.78%E -0.476%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.74%E -6.19%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 00:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.78%E -0.476%K -0.649%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.74%E -6.19%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 18:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -2.05%E -0.547%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 03:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.95%EV -2.83%E -0.764%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.05%EV -4.05%E -3.11%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-12 03:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -3.09%E -0.836%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 03:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 17:33 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 03:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 03:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-12 03:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -4.40%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-12 02:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -4.93%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -3.31%E -2.53%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-12 03:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.31%E -2.53%K -10.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-12 03:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 03:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 03:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 22:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 03:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 03:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 17:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.26%E -4.93%K -23.19%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-11 23:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.74%E -6.19%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-10 18:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.74%E -6.19%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 03:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.71%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -7.74%E -6.19%K -30.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 03:24 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 16:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -7.02%E -1.98%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -8.48%E -6.84%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 22:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -2.57%E -1.95%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.05%E -3.11%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-10 19:41 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-12 03:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 07:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.33%E -2.38%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.52%E -4.32%K -19.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 03:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.56%EV -9.12%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.44%EV -2.57%E -1.95%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-11 17:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.05%E -3.11%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.44%EV -9.64%E -2.79%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.56%EV -8.48%E -6.84%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-11 17:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.95%E -3.22%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.79%E -3.71%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 09:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.05%E -3.11%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -12.26%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.05%E -3.11%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 03:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 0.5% | 2026-10-12 03:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95% | 1.1% | 2026-10-12 03:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47% | 1.7% | 2026-10-12 03:35 |
| Novig◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47% | 1.7% | 2026-10-12 03:54 |