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Karen Khachanov v Adrian Mannarino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karen Khachanov (Local)
Prediction 73.32%1.36fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -2.44%
Kelly -10.07%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.59%73.60%73.54%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.291.3281.97%77.76%77.52%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adrian Mannarino (Visit)
Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV +9.14%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +2.96%
Growth +0.270%
assuming max odds 4.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%26.40%26.46%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.563.504.0930.77%28.12%28.57%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karen Khachanov (Local): 73.32%; Adrian Mannarino (Visit): 26.68%. For Adrian Mannarino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.16%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.84%EV +9.14%E +2.23%K +2.96%G +0.270% | 2.6% | 2026-10-11 03:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -8.36%E -6.68%K -33.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +6.74%E +1.68%K +2.25%G +0.151% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 03:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.55%E -8.65%K -47.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +6.74%E +1.68%K +2.25%G +0.151% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.55%E -8.65%K -47.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +6.74%E +1.68%K +2.25%G +0.151% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -6.89%E -5.42%K -25.52%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV +5.67%E +1.43%K +1.92%G +0.109% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 03:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -6.89%E -5.42%K -25.52%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV +5.67%E +1.43%K +1.92%G +0.109% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 03:51 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -8.36%E -6.68%K -33.42%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV +2.73%E +0.710%K +0.960%G +0.026% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 03:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.89%E -5.42%K -25.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.40%E +0.369%K +0.500%G +0.007% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 03:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.36%E -6.68%K -33.42%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +0.066%E +0.018%K +0.024%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.45%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.55%EV -0.467%E -0.125%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.14%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -2.07%E -0.564%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 03:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -2.60%E -0.713%K -0.982%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -2.60%E -0.713%K -0.982%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 02:46 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -2.60%E -0.713%K -0.982%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 03:51 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -3.40%E -0.940%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -3.22%E -2.44%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-11 03:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -3.96%E -3.02%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 04:03 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 02:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 21:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 21:31 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.62%E -6.05%K -29.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-10 23:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.36%E -6.68%K -33.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 02:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.36%E -6.68%K -33.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.94%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-10 13:53 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -3.96%E -3.02%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -5.80%E -1.64%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -3.96%E -3.02%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 04:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 04:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 02:46 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.60%E -1.89%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 02:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 04:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 04:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.94%E -2.30%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 04:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 04:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -7.62%E -6.05%K -29.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 03:51 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -7.62%E -6.05%K -29.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.27%E -2.73%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-11 04:01 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 02:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -4.69%E -3.61%K -15.63%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -10.61%E -3.17%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 02:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.16%E -4.81%K -21.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.94%E -3.62%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.28%E -4.08%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.42%E -4.20%K -18.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.28%E -4.08%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.06%EV -7.62%E -6.05%K -29.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -13.28%E -4.08%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-10 21:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 03:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 03:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 03:51 |
| Novig◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.37% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.63% | 1.5% | 2026-10-11 04:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.29% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.71% | 1.6% | 2026-10-11 04:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65% | 3.1% | 2026-10-11 03:50 |