Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hubert Hurkacz v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2026-10-13 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hubert Hurkacz (Local)

Predicción 51.05%1.96momio equitativo
EV -3.01%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -3.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%51.16%51.07%53.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.761.851.851.9056.82%54.07%53.91%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante)

Predicción 48.95%2.04momio equitativo
EV +0.353%
Ventaja +0.172%
Kelly +0.336%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.75%48.84%48.93%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.811.921.922.0555.25%51.96%52.08%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 51.05%; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante): 48.95%. Para Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.04. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.05, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.353%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +0.353%E +0.172%K +0.336%G +0.001%4.3%2026-10-11 19:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +0.353%E +0.172%K +0.336%G +0.001%4.3%2026-10-11 20:00
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.05%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.95%EV -0.626%E -0.308%K -0.608%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-11 18:30
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.07%E -1.55%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 18:49
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -3.56%E -1.81%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 17:15
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.52%E -1.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.05%E -2.07%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 18:28
FanDuel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-11 18:19
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 20:01
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 18:20
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 18:19
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -7.09%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -4.54%E -2.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 18:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.09%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.03%E -2.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 19:29
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.60%EV -7.09%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.03%E -2.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 19:29
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 18:20
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.92%EV -5.05%E -2.72%K -5.87%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.08%EV -5.52%E -2.86%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 18:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 18:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:34
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:34
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:33
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.01%E -3.13%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 17:44
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 18:19
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 18:19
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 18:19
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 19:29
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.50%E -3.40%K -7.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 19:29
GTbets🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.01%E -1.58%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.99%E -3.68%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-11 17:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -6.99%E -3.68%K -7.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 19:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -7.48%E -3.96%K -8.40%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 18:19
PlayUp🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.97%E -4.24%K -9.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 18:25
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -7.97%E -4.24%K -9.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 18:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.54%E -2.43%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.46%E -4.52%K -9.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -9.44%E -5.10%K -11.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 17:35
ReBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.69%EV -8.63%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.31%EV -9.93%E -5.40%K -11.82%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-11 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.56%EV -9.14%E -5.13%K -11.71%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.44%EV -10.91%E -5.99%K -13.30%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 18:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.70%EV -10.16%E -5.77%K -13.36%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.30%EV -11.40%E -6.30%K -14.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 18:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%5.7%2026-10-11 18:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%5.7%2026-10-11 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%5.7%2026-10-11 18:25
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%7.6%2026-10-11 18:55
Smarkets◎1.76I 56.82%NM 50.56%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.44%12.4%2026-10-11 18:20