The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Daniil Medvedev v Tommy Paul

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 10:05 UTC

Final: Daniil Medvedev 2–1 Tommy Paul

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

60 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Daniil Medvedev (Local)

Prediction 67.37%1.48fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.29%67.24%67.36%69.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4674.63%71.39%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tommy Paul (Visit)

Prediction 32.63%3.06fair odd
EV +3.12%
Edge +0.986%
Kelly +1.44%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.09%32.76%32.64%36.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.912.953.1640.00%34.35%33.90%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 67.37%; Tommy Paul (Visit): 32.63%. For Tommy Paul (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -8.38%E -6.16%K -23.28%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV +3.12%E +0.986%K +1.44%G +0.045%5.2%2026-10-16 09:45
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +2.79%E +0.886%K +1.30%G +0.036%4.2%2026-10-16 09:45
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.38%E -6.16%K -23.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +1.16%E +0.374%K +0.552%G +0.006%5.8%2026-10-16 09:45
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 68.15%EV -3.66%E -2.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.85%EV -0.147%E -0.048%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-16 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -3.66%E -2.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -0.473%E -0.155%K -0.231%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-16 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.66%E -2.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-16 09:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 09:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 09:30
BetAnything🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 09:29
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:10
Casumo🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:10
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:10
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:05
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.38%E -6.16%K -23.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -2.10%E -0.702%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.12%EV -6.36%E -4.57%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.88%EV -3.08%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 09:45
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.74%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-16 09:15
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -5.01%E -3.55%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.74%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-16 06:55
Bet Right🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.36%E -4.57%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -3.74%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 09:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -7.71%E -5.62%K -20.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -3.74%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 09:35
Coolbet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -5.01%E -3.55%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -4.39%E -1.50%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 09:39
ReBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -5.01%E -3.55%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -4.72%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-16 09:10
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.66%E -2.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 09:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-16 09:10
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-16 09:25
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.01%E -3.55%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 09:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.01%E -3.55%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 09:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 09:45
picklebet_au🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 09:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 23:50
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 09:35
Fliff🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.37%E -1.85%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 09:45
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -2.99%E -2.08%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 09:34
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 09:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 09:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -9.73%E -7.26%K -28.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -7.00%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 09:05
GTbets🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -3.66%E -2.56%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -8.30%E -2.96%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 01:39
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.99%E -2.08%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 23:45
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -4.34%E -3.05%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 09:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 09:55
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 09:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 09:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -11.89%E -4.41%K -7.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 23:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.68%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -11.89%E -4.41%K -7.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 23:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -1.64%E -1.12%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -13.53%E -5.10%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 23:45
Neds🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -1.64%E -1.12%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -13.53%E -5.10%K -8.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 23:44
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -2.32%E -1.60%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -18.42%E -7.37%K -12.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-15 04:49
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -2.32%E -1.60%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -18.42%E -7.37%K -12.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-15 04:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-10-16 09:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-10-16 09:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-10-16 09:45
Matchbook◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%0.7%2026-10-16 09:45
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-10-16 09:45
Novig◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.66%0.9%2026-10-16 09:55
ProphetX◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-10-16 09:45