Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Casper Ruud v Felix Auger-Aliassime

2026-10-14 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Casper Ruud (Local)

Predicción 43.87%2.28momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.578%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.16%43.86%43.72%45.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.982.172.202.2550.51%46.03%45.45%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visitante)

Predicción 56.13%1.78momio equitativo
EV -2.33%
Ventaja -1.34%
Kelly -3.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.67%56.14%56.28%57.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.661.671.7463.69%60.13%59.88%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Casper Ruud (Local): 43.87%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visitante): 56.13%. Para Casper Ruud (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.28. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.25, con un valor esperado de -1.30%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-12 11:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:08
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -1.30%E -0.578%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:09
DraftKings🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -1.74%E -0.776%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -6.82%E -4.11%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 12:00
FanDuel🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-12 11:35
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 11:34
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-12 11:35
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.05%EV -3.05%E -1.38%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.95%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-12 13:20
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-12 14:24
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 11:24
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 12:25
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 14:25
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 14:24
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.49%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 14:05
Bet Right🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 14:19
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -4.37%E -2.00%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -9.06%E -5.60%K -14.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 11:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -4.81%E -2.22%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 14:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-12 14:25
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 12:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 12:49
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 12:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.06%E -5.60%K -14.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-12 12:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -5.69%E -2.64%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -11.87%E -7.56%K -20.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-12 11:09
GTbets🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%EV -6.12%E -2.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 11:19
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-12 11:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 14:20
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 14:19
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 14:20
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 12:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.70%E -3.39%K -8.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 12:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.85%EV -8.32%E -3.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.15%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 14:20
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -8.76%E -4.21%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 14:19
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 11:19
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-12 14:03
ReBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.96%EV -11.39%E -5.64%K -11.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.04%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-12 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.75%EV -12.27%E -6.13%K -12.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -9.06%E -5.60%K -14.62%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.00%EV -13.14%E -6.64%K -13.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.00%EV -9.06%E -5.60%K -14.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 14:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%0.6%2026-10-12 14:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.3%2026-10-12 14:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%3.7%2026-10-12 13:55
Novig◎2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%6.4%2026-10-12 14:24
Smarkets◎2.26I 44.25%NM 41.15%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.85%7.5%2026-10-12 14:24