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Ben Shelton v Arthur Gea
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ben Shelton (Local)
Prediction 70.73%1.41fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -10.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.75%70.65%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.351.3676.92%74.47%74.07%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Gea (Visit)
Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.697%
Kelly +0.976%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%29.25%29.35%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.203.5033.33%31.13%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ben Shelton (Local): 70.73%; Arthur Gea (Visit): 29.27%. For Arthur Gea (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.44%E +0.697%K +0.976%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.67%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.33%EV +0.684%E +0.199%K +0.280%G +0.002% | 2.6% | 2026-10-11 03:16 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.09%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.91%EV -0.194%E -0.057%K -0.080%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 14:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -0.486%E -0.143%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-10 18:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.486%E -0.143%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-10 23:28 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -1.95%E -0.582%K -0.830%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.09%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.91%EV -2.83%E -0.852%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.03%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.97%EV -3.12%E -0.943%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.03%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.97%EV -3.12%E -0.943%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.41%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -3.41%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -3.41%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -3.41%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 02:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 02:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.88%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.74%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.26%EV -5.17%E -1.60%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.22%E -3.90%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 01:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 03:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.63%E -5.03%K -20.73%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.34%E -1.98%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-11 02:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -6.63%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 17:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 03:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.27%E -2.99%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.83%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -10.73%E -3.52%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.81%E -2.80%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.93%E -4.46%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -12.19%E -4.06%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29% | 0.4% | 2026-10-11 03:56 |
| Novig◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.80% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 27.20% | 1.0% | 2026-10-11 03:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70% | 1.7% | 2026-10-11 03:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.73% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.27% | 1.9% | 2026-10-11 03:55 |