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Alexander Zverev v Alexander Bublik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexander Zverev (Local)
Prediction 71.15%1.41fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -6.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.32%71.33%71.12%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.331.331.3777.52%75.25%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Bublik (Visit)
Prediction 28.85%3.47fair odd
EV +3.85%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%28.67%28.88%30.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.6032.79%30.29%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Zverev (Local): 71.15%; Alexander Bublik (Visit): 28.85%. For Alexander Bublik (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.21%E -6.37%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +3.85%E +1.07%K +1.48%G +0.057% | 5.3% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.21%E -6.37%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +3.85%E +1.07%K +1.48%G +0.057% | 5.3% | 2026-10-13 09:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -8.21%E -6.37%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +3.85%E +1.07%K +1.48%G +0.057% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 11:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -6.08%E -4.61%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV +0.967%E +0.276%K +0.387%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-10-13 09:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.79%E -5.18%K -21.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.967%E +0.276%K +0.387%G +0.004% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 09:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.967%E +0.276%K +0.387%G +0.004% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.90%EV -3.23%E -2.38%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 28.10%EV +0.390%E +0.112%K +0.157%G +0.001% | 2.3% | 2026-10-13 08:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV +0.102%E +0.029%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-13 08:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.29%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV +0.102%E +0.029%K +0.041%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-13 08:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -8.21%E -6.37%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -0.475%E -0.138%K -0.194%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-13 09:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -4.66%E -3.47%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -1.92%E -0.564%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-13 08:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.92%E -0.564%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-13 08:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.08%E -4.61%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.92%E -0.564%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-13 08:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.92%E -0.564%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-13 09:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -3.23%E -2.38%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -3.36%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-13 06:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.66%E -3.47%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 07:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.66%E -3.47%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 08:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 08:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.79%E -5.18%K -21.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-12 16:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.84%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16%EV -5.38%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-13 07:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-13 06:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-13 07:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.66%E -3.47%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 06:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-13 09:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-13 08:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-13 09:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.24%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-13 09:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.69%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-12 17:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.69%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-13 08:08 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.50%E -5.77%K -25.01%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.69%E -2.40%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-13 08:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -8.26%E -2.60%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.82%EV -2.52%E -1.84%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.18%EV -8.55%E -2.70%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-13 09:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -9.13%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-13 09:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -5.37%E -4.04%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -9.13%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-13 08:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -8.21%E -6.37%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -9.13%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-13 09:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.23%E -2.38%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.57%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-12 21:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.57%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 16:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.57%E -3.41%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 16:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-13 09:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.94%E -2.92%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.01%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-13 09:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 0.6% | 2026-10-13 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-10-13 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-10-13 09:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-10-13 09:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29% | 2.8% | 2026-10-13 09:55 |