Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev v Alex de Minaur

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 10:07 UTC

Final: Alexander Zverev 2–0 Alex de Minaur

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

61 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prediction 64.15%1.56fair odd

EV -3.13%

Edge -2.07%

Kelly -6.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%64.31%64.15%66.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.471.481.5169.93%67.91%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alex de Minaur (Visit)

Prediction 35.85%2.79fair odd

EV +1.81%

Edge +0.636%

Kelly +0.982%

Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 2.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.64%35.69%35.85%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.652.632.8440.00%37.67%38.02%35.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Zverev (Local): 64.15%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 35.85%. For Alex de Minaur (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV +1.81%E +0.636%K +0.982%G +0.018%	4.7%	2026-10-15 07:15
SportsBet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.12%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.81I 35.59%NM 33.88%EV +0.732%E +0.260%K +0.404%G +0.003%	5.0%	2026-10-15 07:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.12%EV -3.77%E -2.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.88%EV +0.373%E +0.133%K +0.207%G +0.001%	2.4%	2026-10-15 09:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +0.373%E +0.133%K +0.207%G +0.001%	5.2%	2026-10-15 07:19
TAB🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV +0.373%E +0.133%K +0.207%G +0.001%	5.2%	2026-10-15 09:55
1xBet🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -6.34%E -4.34%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -0.702%E -0.254%K -0.397%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-15 09:55
Bet Right🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.98%E -4.81%K -15.51%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.42%E -0.516%K -0.811%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 09:55
Betway🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.98%E -4.81%K -15.51%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.42%E -0.516%K -0.811%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 07:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.42%E -0.516%K -0.811%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-15 06:55
Sky Bet🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -1.42%E -0.516%K -0.811%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-15 07:00
GTbets🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%EV -6.34%E -4.34%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -1.78%E -0.649%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-13 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.13%E -2.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.21%E -1.19%K -1.89%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-15 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -3.13%E -2.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV -3.21%E -1.19%K -1.89%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-10-15 07:30
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.77%E -2.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.21%E -1.19%K -1.89%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-15 02:59
Bovada🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.05%E -3.42%K -10.53%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.21%E -1.19%K -1.89%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-15 08:53
Coolbet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.70%E -3.87%K -12.12%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.21%E -1.19%K -1.89%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 09:54
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.98%E -4.81%K -15.51%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.21%E -1.19%K -1.89%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 09:55
DraftKings🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.51%EV -5.05%E -3.42%K -10.53%G +0.000%	2.69I 37.17%NM 35.49%EV -3.57%E -1.33%K -2.11%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-14 09:05
Marathon Bet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.41%EV -5.70%E -3.87%K -12.12%G +0.000%	2.66I 37.59%NM 35.59%EV -4.65%E -1.75%K -2.80%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-15 09:55
BetAnything🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.13%E -2.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-15 07:29
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.77%E -2.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-15 07:10
Betsson🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-15 02:59
NordicBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-15 03:00
BetMGM🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.05%E -3.42%K -10.53%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-15 04:43
Betr (AU)🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -6.34%E -4.34%K -13.78%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-15 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-15 09:35
Fliff🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.00%E -1.89%K -3.03%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-15 09:55
ReBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.92%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.08%EV -5.36%E -2.03%K -3.27%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-15 09:05
Virgin Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
BetRivers🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Grosvenor🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Casumo🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
TABtouch🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Unibet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
Svenska Spel🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
ATG (SE)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:40
betPARX🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.41%E -2.96%K -9.01%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.72%E -2.18%K -3.51%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-15 08:39
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.77%E -2.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.08%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-10-15 00:54
William Hill🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.08%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-15 09:55
888sport🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.08%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-15 09:55
888sport (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.08%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-15 09:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.08%E -2.32%K -3.75%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-15 09:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.13%E -2.07%K -6.14%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-14 21:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.05%E -3.42%K -10.53%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 02:59
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.05%E -3.42%K -10.53%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-15 03:00
LeoVegas🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.70%E -3.87%K -12.12%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-15 08:45
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.70%E -3.87%K -12.12%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-14 21:19
picklebet_au🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.70%E -3.87%K -12.12%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-15 04:05
betano_uk🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.98%E -4.81%K -15.51%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-14 04:09
Bet Victor🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.98%E -4.81%K -15.51%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-10-14 04:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-15 04:45
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.62%E -5.29%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.80%E -2.61%K -4.25%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-10-15 04:45
Fanatics🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.05%E -3.42%K -10.53%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -8.59%E -3.37%K -5.54%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-10-15 09:50
Neds🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.77%E -2.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-15 04:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.77%E -2.51%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-15 04:45
PMU (FR)🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -8.26%E -5.78%K -19.21%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -10.38%E -4.15%K -6.92%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-10-15 08:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%	2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%	0.6%	2026-10-15 09:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%	2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%	0.6%	2026-10-15 09:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%	2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%	0.6%	2026-10-15 09:50
Matchbook◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52%	2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%	0.6%	2026-10-15 09:50
Novig◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83%	2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17%	0.8%	2026-10-15 09:55
ProphetX◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%	0.9%	2026-10-15 09:40
Smarkets◎	1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%	2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%	1.7%	2026-10-15 09:55