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Alex de Minaur v Karen Khachanov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 54.18%1.85fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%54.10%54.13%57.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.751.761.8059.88%57.17%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Karen Khachanov (Visit)
Prediction 45.82%2.18fair odd
EV +2.17%
Edge +0.975%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.82%45.90%45.87%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.072.2351.28%48.45%48.31%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 54.18%; Karen Khachanov (Visit): 45.82%. For Karen Khachanov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -9.52%E -5.70%K -14.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV +2.17%E +0.975%K +1.77%G +0.038% | 4.7% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.20%EV -2.47%E -1.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.80%EV -2.41%E -1.13%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-10-13 03:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -5.72%E -3.29%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 23:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -3.32%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-12 23:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-13 02:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 23:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 23:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 23:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 03:53 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-12 21:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.81%E -3.96%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.78%E -1.80%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-13 03:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.56%E -2.00%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.70%E -2.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-12 23:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.70%E -2.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 03:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.70%E -2.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 03:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.70%E -2.26%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-13 03:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -3.56%E -2.00%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 11:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:38 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.16%E -2.49%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-12 11:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.56%E -2.00%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.62%E -2.73%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-12 23:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.47%E -1.37%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-13 03:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-13 03:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.64%E -2.64%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-13 03:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.18%E -2.96%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-13 02:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.18%E -2.96%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-13 01:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.72%E -3.29%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-13 03:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.72%E -3.29%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-13 00:33 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.35%E -4.30%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-13 03:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.89%E -4.64%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-13 03:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -5.18%E -2.96%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.45%E -3.69%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-13 00:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -5.18%E -2.96%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -7.45%E -3.69%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-13 00:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.56%E -2.00%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-13 03:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.10%E -2.31%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-13 03:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 21:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-12 23:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-13 00:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.36%E -4.18%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-13 00:34 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.93%EV -7.89%E -4.64%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.07%EV -8.82%E -4.43%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-13 03:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.97%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.03%EV -9.74%E -4.94%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-12 11:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.18%E -2.96%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.66%E -5.46%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-12 11:58 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.18%E -2.96%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.66%E -5.46%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-12 11:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 03:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 03:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 0.5% | 2026-10-13 03:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.0% | 2026-10-13 03:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.1% | 2026-10-13 03:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.91% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.09% | 1.7% | 2026-10-13 03:50 |