Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Blockx v Francisco Cerundolo

Kickoff: 2026-06-15 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alexander Blockx (Local)

Prediction 54.81%1.82fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%54.81%54.81%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.761.761.7759.88%56.94%56.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francisco Cerundolo (Visit)

Prediction 45.19%2.21fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -4.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.19%45.19%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.062.1050.00%48.58%48.54%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Blockx (Local): 54.81%; Francisco Cerundolo (Visit): 45.19%. For Alexander Blockx (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -2.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -2.98%E -1.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.37%E -3.60%K -7.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-15 03:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.98%E -1.68%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-15 06:50
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:40
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
LeoVegas🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:51
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:51
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 03:50
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 04:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 04:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.53%E -2.00%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.92%E -3.36%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-15 04:30
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.46%E -5.07%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.11%E -2.43%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-15 04:41
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.