Language:English
Alex de Minaur v Brandon Nakashima
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 70.98%1.41fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +3.48%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%71.00%71.11%74.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.4380.00%74.98%75.47%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brandon Nakashima (Visit)
Prediction 29.02%3.45fair odd
EV +8.84%
Edge +2.36%
Kelly +3.21%
Growth +0.284%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%29.00%28.89%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.203.203.7535.09%31.27%31.30%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 70.98%; Brandon Nakashima (Visit): 29.02%. For Brandon Nakashima (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV +8.84%E +2.36%K +3.21%G +0.284% | 3.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV +5.94%E +1.63%K +2.24%G +0.133% | 4.3% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -11.28%E -9.02%K -45.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +4.48%E +1.25%K +1.72%G +0.077% | 7.8% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.51%EV -8.44%E -6.54%K -29.10%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.49%EV +3.90%E +1.09%K +1.51%G +0.059% | 5.5% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.44%E -6.54%K -29.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +3.03%E +0.855%K +1.19%G +0.036% | 5.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.44%E -6.54%K -29.10%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +1.58%E +0.452%K +0.633%G +0.010% | 6.1% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -9.86%E -7.76%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV +1.58%E +0.452%K +0.633%G +0.010% | 7.3% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -9.86%E -7.76%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV +1.58%E +0.452%K +0.633%G +0.010% | 7.3% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.32%E -0.388%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -7.02%E -5.36%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -1.32%E -0.388%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -8.44%E -6.54%K -29.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -1.32%E -0.388%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.02%E -5.36%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.02%E -5.36%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -9.86%E -7.76%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.12%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-19 10:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.12%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.12%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -8.44%E -6.54%K -29.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.12%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.43%EV -9.15%E -7.15%K -32.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -7.12%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -7.41%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-19 10:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -7.41%E -2.32%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-19 10:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.93%EV +0.787%E +0.554%K +1.87%G +0.015% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.07%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-06-19 10:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.40%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.60%EV -9.16%E -2.93%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-06-19 10:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-19 10:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-19 10:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:36 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.10%EV -10.57%E -8.39%K -40.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV +1.50%E +1.05%K +3.48%G +0.052% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-19 10:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -11.48%E -3.76%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 10:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -2.05%E -1.49%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -11.77%E -3.87%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-19 10:28 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.633%E -0.452%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-19 10:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -2.76%E -2.02%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-19 10:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:36 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 10:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-19 10:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.88%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.61%EV -7.02%E -5.36%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -12.93%E -4.31%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -0.633%E -0.452%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -14.38%E -4.87%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -0.633%E -0.452%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -15.83%E -5.46%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -15.83%E -5.46%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-19 10:27 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -15.83%E -5.46%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-19 10:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -0.633%E -0.452%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -16.41%E -5.70%K -8.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.67%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.33%EV -17.28%E -6.06%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 0.2% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.61% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.39% | 5.8% | 2026-06-19 10:40 |