Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tomas Machac v Martin Landaluce

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tomas Machac (Local)

Prediction 62.80%1.59fair odd

EV -3.29%

Edge -2.14%

Kelly -6.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.54%63.28%62.50%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.481.481.5469.93%67.62%67.34%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Martin Landaluce (Visit)

Prediction 37.20%2.69fair odd

EV +7.15%

Edge +2.48%

Kelly +3.80%

Growth +0.272%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.18%36.72%37.50%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.572.502.8841.67%38.86%40.00%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tomas Machac (Local): 62.80%; Martin Landaluce (Visit): 37.20%. For Martin Landaluce (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -10.20%E -7.13%K -23.72%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV +7.15%E +2.48%K +3.80%G +0.272%	4.7%	2026-10-31 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -7.69%E -5.23%K -16.36%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV +2.31%E +0.840%K +1.32%G +0.030%	4.4%	2026-10-31 11:55
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.57%E -6.65%K -21.76%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.31%E +0.840%K +1.32%G +0.030%	5.8%	2026-10-31 11:54
Pinnacle🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -5.80%E -3.87%K -11.61%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV +0.449%E +0.166%K +0.264%G +0.001%	3.7%	2026-10-31 08:50
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -8.94%E -6.17%K -19.88%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +0.449%E +0.166%K +0.264%G +0.001%	6.0%	2026-10-31 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.57%E -6.65%K -21.76%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.53%E -0.965%K -1.56%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-31 06:35
Coral🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.57%E -6.65%K -21.76%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.53%E -0.965%K -1.56%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-31 06:35
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.29%E -2.14%K -6.10%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -6.99%E -2.80%K -4.66%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-10-31 11:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.80%E -3.87%K -11.61%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.99%E -2.80%K -4.66%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-31 07:30
Bet Victor🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.94%E -6.17%K -19.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.99%E -2.80%K -4.66%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-10-31 11:50
betano_uk🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -8.94%E -6.17%K -19.88%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.99%E -2.80%K -4.66%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-10-31 11:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.92%E -2.56%K -7.40%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -8.85%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-10-31 11:50
ReBet🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.55%E -2.99%K -8.75%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.85%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-10-31 11:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.80%E -3.87%K -11.61%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.85%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-10-31 06:35
NordicBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.80%E -3.87%K -11.61%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.71%E -4.46%K -7.65%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-10-31 11:50
Betsson🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.80%E -3.87%K -11.61%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.71%E -4.46%K -7.65%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-10-31 11:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.54I 64.94%NM 64.68%	2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%	0.4%	2026-10-31 11:49
Smarkets◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64%	1.8%	2026-10-31 11:55