Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo v Lorenzo Sonego

2026-11-01 13:00 UTC — ATP Paris Masters

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local)

Prediction 43.37%2.31fair odd

EV -3.72%

Edge -1.68%

Kelly -3.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.26%43.32%43.42%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.172.182.2248.78%46.13%45.87%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lorenzo Sonego (Visit)

Prediction 56.63%1.77fair odd

EV -3.72%

Edge -2.19%

Kelly -5.32%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.70%56.68%56.58%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.591.651.651.7062.89%60.50%60.42%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local): 43.37%; Lorenzo Sonego (Visit): 56.63%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.22, with an expected value of -3.72%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.72%E -1.68%K -3.05%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.72%E -2.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-11-01 01:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.72%E -1.68%K -3.05%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.72%E -2.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-11-01 01:00
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.56%E -3.97%K -10.09%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-10-31 23:15
betano_uk🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-11-01 00:59
Bet Victor🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-11-01 00:58
Coral🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-31 23:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.59%E -2.09%K -3.83%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-31 23:14
Pinnacle🎯	2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.22%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -3.72%E -2.19%K -5.32%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-31 23:25
GTbets🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.46%E -2.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.22%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-31 22:50
Betsson🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -5.46%E -2.50%K -4.63%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -8.82%E -5.48%K -14.46%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-11-01 00:45
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -5.89%E -2.72%K -5.04%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-01 00:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.76%E -3.14%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.29%E -2.54%K -6.22%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-01 01:00
PlayUp🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.76%E -3.14%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.86%E -2.89%K -7.14%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-31 23:15
theScore Bet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.76%E -3.14%K -5.88%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.56%E -3.97%K -10.09%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-11-01 01:00
ReBet🎯	2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -7.19%E -3.36%K -6.31%G +0.000%	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -5.99%E -3.61%K -9.08%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-01 00:55
NordicBet🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -8.06%E -3.80%K -7.20%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.56%E -3.97%K -10.09%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-01 00:55
BoyleSports🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.93%E -4.25%K -8.12%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.42%E -3.25%K -8.09%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-01 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 43.68%EV -11.10%E -5.41%K -10.57%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 56.32%EV -9.95%E -6.26%K -16.87%G +0.000%	11.7%	2026-11-01 01:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	2.29I 43.67%NM 42.89%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.11%	1.8%	2026-11-01 00:30
Smarkets◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%	1.73I 57.80%NM 56.20%	2.8%	2026-11-01 00:55