The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Vit Kopriva v Matteo Arnaldi

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vit Kopriva (Local)

Prediction 55.72%1.79fair odd
EV +3.08%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +3.63%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%57.75%56.76%67.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.591.651.85100.00%62.82%60.61%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Matteo Arnaldi (Visit)

Prediction 44.28%2.26fair odd
EV +32.40%
Edge +10.83%
Kelly +16.28%
Growth +5.27%

assuming max odds 2.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%42.25%43.24%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.002.222.102.99100.00%45.06%47.62%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vit Kopriva (Local): 55.72%; Matteo Arnaldi (Visit): 44.28%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.99, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.80%EV -20.88%E -14.70%K -49.71%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV +32.40%E +10.83%K +16.28%G +5.27%3.9%2026-04-04 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -20.32%E -14.21%K -47.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +30.62%E +10.38%K +15.71%G +4.81%3.8%2026-04-04 13:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -20.32%E -14.21%K -47.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +30.62%E +10.38%K +15.71%G +4.81%3.8%2026-04-04 13:24
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -20.88%E -14.70%K -49.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV +23.98%E +8.57%K +13.32%G +3.20%6.1%2026-04-04 13:19
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -12.52%E -7.97%K -21.96%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV +13.80%E +5.37%K +8.79%G +1.21%2.6%2026-04-04 13:22
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.95%E -4.16%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.58%E -1.17%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-04 13:29
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.06%E -4.89%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.58%E -1.17%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 13:30
Fliff🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -10.29%E -6.39%K -16.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -7.01%E -3.34%K -6.38%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 13:30
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -10.85%E -6.78%K -18.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -7.01%E -3.34%K -6.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 13:29
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -4.72%E -2.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.23%E -4.50%K -8.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 13:30
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.49%E -1.42%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.44%E -5.72%K -11.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 13:29
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.49%E -1.42%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.44%E -5.72%K -11.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 13:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -3.60%E -2.08%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -11.44%E -5.72%K -11.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 13:29
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.28%E -3.10%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -11.44%E -5.72%K -11.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 13:30
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -1.37%E -0.777%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -12.77%E -6.48%K -13.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 13:30
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +3.08%E +1.67%K +3.63%G +0.112%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -18.08%E -9.77%K -21.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 13:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -44.28%E -44.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -55.72%E -55.72%K +0.000%G +0.000%100.0%2026-04-04 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%0.8%2026-04-04 13:30
Novig◎1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%6.6%2026-04-04 13:30