Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francesco Maestrelli v Alexander Blockx

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

39%

61%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francesco Maestrelli (Local)

Prediction 38.80%2.58fair odd

EV +5.16%

Edge +1.90%

Kelly +3.02%

Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.63%38.57%39.09%40.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.442.402.7143.48%41.06%41.67%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alexander Blockx (Visit)

Prediction 61.20%1.63fair odd

EV -3.92%

Edge -2.50%

Kelly -6.88%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.79%61.43%60.91%64.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.521.521.5769.93%65.82%65.79%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesco Maestrelli (Local): 38.80%; Alexander Blockx (Visit): 61.20%. For Francesco Maestrelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.71I 36.90%NM 35.63%EV +5.16%E +1.90%K +3.02%G +0.155%	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.37%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-04-04 12:55
Bet Victor🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.99%E -1.20%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-04 12:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.99%E -1.20%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-04 12:54
BoyleSports🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.99%E -1.20%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.20%E -5.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-04 12:54
Fliff🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.39%EV -2.99%E -1.20%K -1.99%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 63.61%EV -12.49%E -8.73%K -29.04%G +0.000%	9.9%	2026-04-04 12:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.93%E -2.01%K -3.40%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.37%E -4.16%K -12.02%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-04 12:54
Coolbet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.14%E -3.32%K -9.35%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-04 12:54
theScore Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.76%E -3.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-04 12:54
Coral🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.87%E -2.86%K -4.91%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.37%E -4.16%K -12.02%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-04 12:55
Betway🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.65%E -3.21%K -5.54%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.92%E -2.50%K -6.88%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-04 12:54
BetRivers🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21%EV -9.98%E -4.30%K -7.56%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79%EV -4.53%E -2.91%K -8.09%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-04 12:55
Betsson🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -10.75%E -4.68%K -8.27%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-04-04 12:54
NordicBet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -10.75%E -4.68%K -8.27%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -6.98%E -4.59%K -13.42%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-04-04 12:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%	5.6%	2026-04-04 12:55
Novig◎	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.31%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.69%	6.3%	2026-04-04 12:54