L’École des cotes

Felix Auger-Aliassime v Marin Cilic

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-08 13:45 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Felix Auger-Aliassime (Local)

Prévision 63.88%1.57cote équitable
EV +0.293%
Avantage +0.187%
Kelly +0.514%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 1.57

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.90%63.89%63.85%67.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.381.461.461.5772.46%68.30%68.73%63.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Marin Cilic (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.12%2.77cote équitable
EV +6.19%
Avantage +2.11%
Kelly +3.19%
Croissance +0.198%

avec la cote maximale 2.94

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.72%36.11%36.15%41.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.632.632.9444.44%38.01%38.10%34.01%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
GTbets1.45I 68.97%NM 66.97%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.03%EV +6.19%E +2.11%K +3.19%G +0.198%3.0%2026-04-08 13:29
1xBet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%EV -9.29%E -6.54%K -22.12%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%EV +5.47%E +1.87%K +2.85%G +0.156%4.7%2026-04-08 13:20
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -9.29%E -6.54%K -22.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +4.75%E +1.64%K +2.50%G +0.119%4.9%2026-04-08 13:39
Hard Rock Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -9.29%E -6.54%K -22.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +4.75%E +1.64%K +2.50%G +0.119%4.9%2026-04-08 13:39
ReBet1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +2.94%E +1.03%K +1.59%G +0.047%4.5%2026-04-08 13:20
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +1.13%E +0.405%K +0.630%G +0.007%4.7%2026-04-08 13:37
Bally Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.65%E -6.05%K -20.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +1.13%E +0.405%K +0.630%G +0.007%5.6%2026-04-08 13:20
Bet Right1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.673%E -0.245%K -0.384%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 13:31
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -0.673%E -0.245%K -0.384%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-08 13:20
Unibet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -9.29%E -6.54%K -22.12%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -0.673%E -0.245%K -0.384%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-08 13:20
SportsBet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -10.57%E -7.55%K -26.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -0.673%E -0.245%K -0.384%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 13:35
LowVig.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.76%E -0.646%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-08 13:25
BetOnline.ag1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV -1.76%E -0.646%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-08 13:25
Unibet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.73%E -4.61%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.48%E -0.918%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 13:39
Betr (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.48%E -0.918%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-08 13:32
ATG (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.48%E -0.918%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-08 13:40
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -8.65%E -6.05%K -20.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -2.48%E -0.918%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 13:29
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 65.76%EV -11.21%E -8.06%K -28.73%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.24%EV -3.56%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-08 13:39
Unibet (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.46%E -3.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-08 13:40
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 13:35
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 13:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 13:30
TABtouch1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 13:40
LiveScore Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.28%E -1.62%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 13:40
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.01%E -1.90%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.01%E -1.90%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.01%E -1.90%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Svenska Spel1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.01%E -1.90%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
betPARX1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.82%E -3.23%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.01%E -1.90%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -5.37%E -2.05%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 13:39
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.37%E -2.05%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 13:40
DraftKings1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -5.46%E -3.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.19%EV -5.73%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 13:40
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 13:40
PointsBet (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.46%E -3.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-08 13:40
PlayUp1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.46%E -3.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-08 13:30
theScore Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.09%E -4.15%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 13:40
TAB1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.73%E -4.61%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 13:25
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 13:40
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.01%E -5.56%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-08 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -9.29%E -6.54%K -22.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.09%E -2.34%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-08 13:40
Pinnacle1.55I 64.52%NM 62.38%EV -0.984%E -0.635%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.62%EV -7.17%E -2.79%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-08 13:40
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 13:40
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 13:40
Virgin Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.46%E -3.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-08 13:40
Grosvenor1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.46%E -3.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-08 13:40
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-08 13:40
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -8.65%E -6.05%K -20.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-08 13:40
PMU (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -11.84%E -8.58%K -31.17%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -7.90%E -3.10%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-08 13:40
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 13:40
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 13:40
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 13:40
Fanatics1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.37%E -5.08%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.70%E -3.88%K -6.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 13:40
Winamax (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 62.66%EV -6.73%E -4.61%K -14.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -11.51%E -4.70%K -7.94%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-08 13:40
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -2.26%E -1.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -13.31%E -5.55%K -9.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 13:40
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.18%E -2.79%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -13.31%E -5.55%K -9.51%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-08 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -2.26%E -1.48%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -14.40%E -6.08%K -10.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-08 13:40
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV +0.293%E +0.187%K +0.514%G +0.002%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -18.73%E -8.33%K -14.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%0.1%2026-04-08 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-04-08 13:40
Matchbook1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-04-08 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.2%2026-04-08 13:40
Novig1.56I 64.10%NM 63.12%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.88%1.6%2026-04-08 13:40
ProphetX1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-04-08 13:40
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%8.0%2026-04-08 13:40