Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ethan Quinn v Otto Virtanen

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 12:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ethan Quinn (Local)

Prediction 70.12%1.43fair odd

EV +6.59%

Edge +4.33%

Kelly +12.67%

Growth +0.834%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.46%69.80%70.39%75.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.371.351.5280.00%73.05%73.80%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Otto Virtanen (Visit)

Prediction 29.88%3.35fair odd

EV +16.52%

Edge +4.24%

Kelly +5.70%

Growth +0.941%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.27%30.20%29.61%36.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.553.053.013.9039.22%32.75%33.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ethan Quinn (Local): 70.12%; Otto Virtanen (Visit): 29.88%. For Otto Virtanen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -12.35%E -9.88%K -49.39%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV +16.52%E +4.24%K +5.70%G +0.941%	5.6%	2026-04-04 12:38
Bet Victor🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -9.54%E -7.40%K -32.90%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +1.58%E +0.465%K +0.659%G +0.010%	6.9%	2026-04-04 12:39
Coolbet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -5.33%E -3.95%K -15.24%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -1.41%E -0.426%K -0.611%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-04-04 12:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -8.14%E -6.21%K -26.26%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.41%E -0.426%K -0.611%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-04 12:39
BetRivers🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -7.44%E -5.63%K -23.24%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.39%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-04 12:39
Fliff🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -9.54%E -7.40%K -32.90%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -5.89%E -1.87%K -2.74%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-04-04 12:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.74%E -5.07%K -20.41%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.51%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-04 12:40
NordicBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -8.84%E -6.80%K -29.47%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.38%E -2.38%K -3.51%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-04-04 12:39
GTbets🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 67.79%EV +0.977%E +0.678%K +2.22%G +0.022%	3.03I 33.00%NM 32.21%EV -9.47%E -3.13%K -4.67%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-04-04 12:29
PlayUp🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.23%E -2.34%K -8.50%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.18%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-04 12:36
Coral🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.63%E -3.41%K -12.87%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.18%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-04 12:39
BoyleSports🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.63%E -3.41%K -12.87%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.37%E -3.46%K -5.18%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-04 12:39
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.33%E -3.95%K -15.24%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -11.86%E -4.02%K -6.08%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-04 12:39
LowVig.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV +3.08%E +2.10%K +6.55%G +0.202%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -16.34%E -5.84%K -9.08%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-04 11:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV +3.08%E +2.10%K +6.55%G +0.202%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -16.34%E -5.84%K -9.08%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-04 11:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -1.83%E -1.31%K -4.57%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -17.84%E -6.49%K -10.19%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-04 12:39
Pinnacle🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV +6.59%E +4.33%K +12.67%G +0.834%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%EV -21.12%E -8.00%K -12.88%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-04 12:40
Everygame🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV +1.68%E +1.16%K +3.73%G +0.063%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -23.81%E -9.34%K -15.36%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-04 09:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%	4.7%	2026-04-04 12:40
Novig◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.49%	6.5%	2026-04-04 12:40