Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.89
assuming max odds 2.80
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Emilio Nava (Local): 64.16%; Quentin Halys (Visit): 35.84%. For Emilio Nava (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.89, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.26%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.65%EV +21.26%E +11.25%K +23.89%G +5.08% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.35%EV -30.47%E -15.71%K -32.42%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 09:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV +18.05%E +9.81%K +21.49%G +3.88% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -27.60%E -13.67%K -27.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 09:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +17.41%E +9.52%K +20.98%G +3.65% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -28.32%E -14.16%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 09:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +17.41%E +9.52%K +20.98%G +3.65% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -28.32%E -14.16%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-04 09:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV +14.21%E +7.98%K +18.21%G +2.59% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -28.32%E -14.16%K -28.32%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 09:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +12.28%E +7.02%K +16.37%G +2.01% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -30.11%E -15.44%K -31.70%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-04 08:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.76%E -2.51%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -6.10%E -2.33%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.04%E -3.41%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.61%E -5.28%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.02%E -1.90%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-04 09:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.61%E -5.28%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.10%E -2.33%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -8.89%E -6.26%K -21.17%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -3.23%E -1.20%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -10.18%E -7.27%K -25.44%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +0.351%E +0.125%K +0.195%G +0.001% | 7.1% | 2026-04-04 09:13 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.73% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.27% | 3.5% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 09:15 |