Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Damir Dzumhur v Alexander Blockx

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Damir Dzumhur (Local)

Prediction 57.30%1.75fair odd

EV +30.65%

Edge +13.44%

Kelly +23.94%

Growth +7.34%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.28%54.29%57.74%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.811.652.2865.36%55.17%60.61%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alexander Blockx (Visit)

Prediction 42.70%2.34fair odd

EV +2.48%

Edge +1.03%

Kelly +1.77%

Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.93%45.71%42.26%57.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.582.032.152.4063.29%49.36%46.51%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Damir Dzumhur (Local): 57.30%; Alexander Blockx (Visit): 42.70%. For Damir Dzumhur (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +30.65%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV +30.65%E +13.44%K +23.94%G +7.34%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -28.69%E -17.18%K -42.82%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-05 11:05
LowVig.ag🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +23.77%E +11.00%K +20.49%G +4.87%	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -25.70%E -14.77%K -34.73%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-05 11:08
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +23.77%E +11.00%K +20.49%G +4.87%	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -25.70%E -14.77%K -34.73%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-05 11:08
Bovada🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV +23.20%E +10.79%K +20.17%G +4.68%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -26.98%E -15.78%K -38.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-04-05 10:58
ReBet🎯	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV +22.62%E +10.57%K +19.84%G +4.49%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -26.98%E -15.78%K -38.01%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-04-05 10:59
PlayUp🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV +20.33%E +9.68%K +18.48%G +3.76%	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -26.56%E -15.44%K -36.88%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-05 11:08
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV +18.61%E +8.99%K +17.39%G +3.24%	1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -32.53%E -20.59%K -56.09%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-04-05 11:03
GTbets🎯	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV +16.89%E +8.28%K +16.24%G +2.74%	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -23.57%E -13.17%K -29.83%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-04-05 11:00
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV +14.60%E +7.30%K +14.60%G +2.13%	1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -30.40%E -18.65%K -48.25%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-04-05 10:59
Coolbet🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.59%E -1.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-05 11:15
Betway🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.59%E -1.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.20%E -3.81%K -7.13%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-05 11:15
TAB🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.45%E -3.31%K -8.39%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-05 11:13
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -6.03%E -3.68%K -9.42%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -2.22%E -0.969%K -1.72%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-05 11:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.60%E -4.05%K -10.48%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-05 11:14
BoyleSports🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.17%E -4.43%K -11.57%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.93%E -1.75%K -3.14%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-05 11:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.17%E -4.43%K -11.57%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-05 11:14
BetRivers🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -7.75%E -4.81%K -12.70%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -4.78%E -2.14%K -3.89%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-05 11:15
Fliff🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -7.75%E -4.81%K -12.70%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -10.33%E -4.92%K -9.39%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-04-05 11:15
Betsson🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.32%E -5.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-05 11:15
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.32%E -5.20%K -13.87%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.06%E -2.76%K -5.05%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-05 11:14
Coral🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -11.18%E -7.22%K -20.33%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV +1.20%E +0.505%K +0.874%G +0.010%	6.7%	2026-04-05 11:15
Bet Victor🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -12.33%E -8.06%K -23.26%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV +2.48%E +1.03%K +1.77%G +0.044%	7.0%	2026-04-05 11:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -12.33%E -8.06%K -23.26%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV +1.20%E +0.505%K +0.874%G +0.010%	7.6%	2026-04-05 11:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%	0.5%	2026-04-05 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%	0.5%	2026-04-05 11:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%	2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%	0.6%	2026-04-05 11:15
Smarkets◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%	2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%	1.2%	2026-04-05 11:15
Novig◎	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%	3.2%	2026-04-05 11:13