Language:English
Cameron Norrie v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cameron Norrie (Local)
Prediction 39.00%2.56fair odd
EV +15.06%
Edge +5.11%
Kelly +7.73%
Growth +1.16%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%38.76%39.13%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.482.382.9547.62%40.28%42.02%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 61.00%1.64fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +5.27%
Growth +0.195%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%61.24%60.87%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.521.541.7072.46%65.79%64.94%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cameron Norrie (Local): 39.00%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 61.00%. For Cameron Norrie (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +15.06%E +5.11%K +7.73%G +1.16% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -14.61%E -10.43%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 14:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +13.89%E +4.76%K +7.24%G +1.01% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -12.78%E -8.93%K -29.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 14:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +13.89%E +4.76%K +7.24%G +1.01% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -12.78%E -8.93%K -29.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-07 14:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +13.11%E +4.52%K +6.90%G +0.905% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -14.61%E -10.43%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 14:38 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +13.11%E +4.52%K +6.90%G +0.905% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -14.61%E -10.43%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 14:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +13.11%E +4.52%K +6.90%G +0.905% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -14.61%E -10.43%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 08:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +13.11%E +4.52%K +6.90%G +0.905% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -15.83%E -11.47%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 14:42 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV +11.16%E +3.92%K +6.03%G +0.674% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -15.83%E -11.47%K -41.65%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-07 14:38 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV +10.77%E +3.79%K +5.86%G +0.631% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -12.78%E -8.93%K -29.71%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 09:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +9.21%E +3.29%K +5.12%G +0.472% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -14.61%E -10.43%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 06:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +9.21%E +3.29%K +5.12%G +0.472% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -14.61%E -10.43%K -36.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 06:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV +8.04%E +2.90%K +4.54%G +0.365% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -10.95%E -7.50%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 14:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.41%E +0.543%K +0.883%G +0.012% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 14:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.41%E +0.543%K +0.883%G +0.012% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 14:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.71%EV -0.148%E -0.058%K -0.095%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.29%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-07 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.538%E -0.211%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -0.538%E -0.211%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -7.29%E -4.79%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.538%E -0.211%K -0.347%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.90%E -5.23%K -15.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.49%E -0.995%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.29%E -4.79%K -14.01%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -2.49%E -0.995%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 14:52 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -2.49%E -0.995%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -11.56%E -7.97%K -25.68%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.15%EV -3.66%E -1.48%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.85%EV -10.95%E -7.50%K -23.80%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-07 14:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.02%E -1.90%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -6.39%E -2.66%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.17%E -3.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.17%E -3.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.17%E -3.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.17%E -3.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.17%E -3.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.17%E -3.01%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.41%E -1.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.34%E -3.55%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.68%E -4.36%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.12%E -3.91%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.12%E -3.91%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -9.12%E -3.91%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -4.85%E -3.11%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -10.29%E -4.47%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -3.02%E -1.90%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.29%E -4.47%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.29%E -4.47%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.46%E -3.52%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -10.68%E -4.66%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -1.80%E -1.12%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -11.07%E -4.85%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.24%E -5.44%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.41%E -1.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.24%E -5.44%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.41%E -1.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.24%E -5.44%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.41%E -1.50%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -12.24%E -5.44%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -3.63%E -2.30%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -12.24%E -5.44%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.24%E -2.70%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -12.24%E -5.44%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -8.51%E -5.67%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -14.19%E -6.45%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -6.07%E -3.94%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -18.09%E -8.61%K -16.45%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV +3.69%E +2.17%K +5.27%G +0.195% | 6.4% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.74% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.26% | 0.1% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89% | 0.3% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43% | 0.5% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 0.6% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.30% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.70% | 1.3% | 2026-04-07 14:54 |
| Novig◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 14:55 |