The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Benjamin Bonzi v Roberto Bautista Agut

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benjamin Bonzi (Local)

Prediction 49.55%2.02fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.704%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.18%49.58%49.46%50.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.901.901.9954.05%52.56%52.49%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit)

Prediction 50.45%1.98fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.60%50.42%50.54%51.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.871.861.9354.64%53.48%53.76%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benjamin Bonzi (Local): 49.55%; Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit): 50.45%. For Benjamin Bonzi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.99, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -1.40%E -0.704%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -6.66%E -3.60%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 10:14
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.38%E -1.74%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.65%E -3.02%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 10:30
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -5.37%E -2.81%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -2.63%E -1.36%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 10:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.37%E -2.81%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.63%E -1.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 10:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.37%E -2.81%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.63%E -1.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-04 10:39
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.37%E -2.81%K -5.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.67%E -4.19%K -9.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 10:44
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.86%E -3.08%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.65%E -3.02%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 10:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -5.86%E -3.08%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -7.67%E -4.19%K -9.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 10:30
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -6.85%E -3.64%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.60%EV -3.63%E -1.90%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 10:20
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -7.35%E -3.93%K -8.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -7.67%E -4.19%K -9.24%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.34%E -4.51%K -9.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.66%E -3.60%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:29
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.34%E -4.51%K -9.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.66%E -3.60%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%2.6%2026-04-04 10:39