Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zachary Svajda v Colton Smith

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 01:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zachary Svajda (Local)

Prediction 55.33%1.81fair odd

EV +2.37%

Edge +1.28%

Kelly +2.78%

Growth +0.066%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.07%57.33%52.63%69.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.341.581.411.8574.63%63.48%70.92%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Colton Smith (Visit)

Prediction 44.67%2.24fair odd

EV +39.36%

Edge +12.62%

Kelly +18.57%

Growth +7.31%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.51%42.67%47.37%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.902.502.903.1252.63%40.01%34.48%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 55.33%; Colton Smith (Visit): 44.67%. For Colton Smith (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.49%EV -24.19%E -17.66%K -65.39%G +0.000%	3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%EV +39.36%E +12.62%K +18.57%G +7.31%	5.0%	2026-03-17 01:15
Pinnacle🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -21.98%E -15.59%K -53.61%G +0.000%	3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV +35.79%E +11.77%K +17.54%G +6.28%	3.8%	2026-03-17 01:40
LowVig.ag🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -22.53%E -16.10%K -56.34%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV +35.34%E +11.66%K +17.41%G +6.15%	4.4%	2026-03-17 01:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -22.53%E -16.10%K -56.34%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV +35.34%E +11.66%K +17.41%G +6.15%	4.4%	2026-03-17 01:40
Coral🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -24.75%E -18.20%K -68.74%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +34.00%E +11.33%K +17.00%G +5.78%	6.9%	2026-03-17 01:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -24.75%E -18.20%K -68.74%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +34.00%E +11.33%K +17.00%G +5.78%	6.9%	2026-03-17 01:15
PlayUp🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -22.53%E -16.10%K -56.34%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +29.54%E +10.18%K +15.54%G +4.59%	5.9%	2026-03-17 01:15
Everygame🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -24.75%E -18.20%K -68.74%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +29.54%E +10.18%K +15.54%G +4.59%	8.0%	2026-03-17 01:15
Fliff🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -25.85%E -19.29%K -76.04%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV +29.54%E +10.18%K +15.54%G +4.59%	9.1%	2026-03-17 01:40
Coolbet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.401%E -0.223%K -0.501%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.67%E -5.33%K -10.67%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-17 01:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.06%E -1.16%K -2.68%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.67%E -5.33%K -10.67%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-17 01:45
Betway🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.37%E +1.28%K +2.78%G +0.066%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -12.90%E -6.61%K -13.58%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-17 01:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -0.401%E -0.223%K -0.501%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -12.90%E -6.61%K -13.58%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-17 01:45
NordicBet🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.48%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -12.90%E -6.61%K -13.58%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-03-17 01:45
Bet Victor🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.26%E +0.688%K +1.52%G +0.019%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.69%E -7.69%K -16.14%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 01:44
BoyleSports🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.26%E +0.688%K +1.52%G +0.019%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -14.69%E -7.69%K -16.14%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 01:45
Betsson🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -0.401%E -0.223%K -0.501%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -15.13%E -7.96%K -16.81%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-17 01:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.00I 50.00%NM 49.37%	1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%	1.3%	2026-03-17 01:45