The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Yosuke Watanuki v Francesco Maestrelli

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yosuke Watanuki (Local)

Prediction 45.67%2.19fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.621%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.37%45.84%45.45%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.052.2251.28%48.67%48.78%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Francesco Maestrelli (Visit)

Prediction 54.33%1.84fair odd
EV -0.568%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.684%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%54.16%54.55%56.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.731.8359.88%57.45%57.80%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yosuke Watanuki (Local): 45.67%; Francesco Maestrelli (Visit): 54.33%. For Yosuke Watanuki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV +1.38%E +0.621%K +1.13%G +0.016%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -7.63%E -4.49%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-16 11:45
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.10%E -1.95%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.91%E -2.81%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.10%E -1.95%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.09%E -4.15%K -9.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 12:10
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -4.10%E -1.95%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -8.17%E -4.84%K -11.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-16 12:10
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -5.02%E -2.41%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -9.26%E -5.55%K -13.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 12:10
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -5.02%E -2.41%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -9.26%E -5.55%K -13.82%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 12:10
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -6.39%E -3.11%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -1.65%E -0.914%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-16 18:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.39%E -3.11%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.00%E -3.47%K -8.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.39%E -3.11%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.00%E -3.47%K -8.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.39%E -3.11%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.00%E -3.47%K -8.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 17:40
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.39%E -3.11%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.09%E -4.15%K -9.98%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-16 18:35
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.39%E -3.11%K -6.08%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.63%E -4.49%K -10.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-16 19:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.67%E -4.33%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.568%E -0.310%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -8.67%E -4.33%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -0.568%E -0.310%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 18:55
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.67%E -4.33%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.20%E -1.22%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.67%E -4.33%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.28%E -1.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 18:45
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.95%E -5.62%K -11.53%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.91%E -2.81%K -6.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-16 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%4.1%2026-03-16 18:35