Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.68
assuming max odds 2.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local): 62.62%; Arthur Fery (Visit): 37.38%. For Roman Andres Burruchaga (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.19%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV +5.19%E +3.09%K +7.64%G +0.397% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -15.14%E -6.67%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-16 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.20%E -2.74%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.28%E -4.28%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.67%E -1.83%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.54%E -2.62%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.54%E -2.62%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 14:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.05%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.54%E -2.62%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.80%E -1.08%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.33%E -4.95%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.28%E -4.28%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.95%E -5.41%K -16.93%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.41%E -3.43%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.83%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.81%E +1.02%K +1.60%G +0.045% | 5.8% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.83%E -6.83%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.05%E -0.784%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -11.09%E -7.81%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -2.80%E -1.08%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.36% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64% | 1.8% | 2026-03-16 14:55 |