Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.45
assuming max odds 3.08
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nishesh Basavareddy (Local): 66.92%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 33.08%. For Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.87%.
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.75%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV +1.87%E +0.608%K +0.900%G +0.017% | 3.9% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.775%E -0.258%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-17 01:13 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -2.10%E -0.709%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 01:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.58%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.42%EV -2.10%E -0.709%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 01:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.08%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -4.08%E -1.41%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-17 01:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -4.74%E -1.65%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-17 01:07 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -4.30%E -3.01%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV -5.07%E -1.77%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-17 01:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -2.96%E -2.04%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.74%E -2.01%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.39%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -9.04%E -3.29%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -6.31%E -4.50%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.70%E -3.96%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -4.97%E -3.50%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -14.00%E -5.39%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.2% | 2026-03-17 01:15 |