Language:English
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Sho Shimabukuro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local)
Prediction 55.42%1.80fair odd
EV +18.60%
Edge +8.69%
Kelly +16.31%
Growth +3.03%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.42%55.37%57.72%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.781.692.1472.46%56.30%59.17%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sho Shimabukuro (Visit)
Prediction 44.58%2.24fair odd
EV +33.74%
Edge +11.25%
Kelly +16.87%
Growth +5.69%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%44.63%42.28%55.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.672.072.053.0059.88%48.30%48.78%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nikoloz Basilashvili (Local): 55.42%; Sho Shimabukuro (Visit): 44.58%. For Sho Shimabukuro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -23.52%E -17.05%K -61.90%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +33.74%E +11.25%K +16.87%G +5.69% | 5.8% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -16.87%E -11.25%K -33.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +15.91%E +6.12%K +9.94%G +1.58% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -19.64%E -13.55%K -43.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +15.91%E +6.12%K +9.94%G +1.58% | 7.4% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -18.53%E -12.61%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV +9.22%E +3.77%K +6.36%G +0.587% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -18.53%E -12.61%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV +9.22%E +3.77%K +6.36%G +0.587% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.66%EV -19.09%E -13.07%K -41.50%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV +9.22%E +3.77%K +6.36%G +0.587% | 9.3% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -14.10%E -9.10%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.54%E +1.10%K +1.95%G +0.050% | 8.0% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -14.10%E -9.10%K -25.64%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.54%E +1.10%K +1.95%G +0.050% | 8.0% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -11.88%E -7.47%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV +0.308%E +0.137%K +0.246%G +0.001% | 7.3% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -12.99%E -8.28%K -22.79%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +0.308%E +0.137%K +0.246%G +0.001% | 8.1% | 2026-03-17 19:23 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -12.99%E -8.28%K -22.79%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +0.308%E +0.137%K +0.246%G +0.001% | 8.1% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.45%E -4.46%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.92%E -0.873%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.56%E -5.19%K -13.17%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -9.11%E -5.56%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -6.38%E -3.04%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV +2.52%E +1.36%K +2.97%G +0.075% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -10.84%E -5.42%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-17 19:24 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -5.23%E -3.06%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -13.07%E -6.70%K -13.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.62%EV +16.93%E +8.03%K +15.26%G +2.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.38%EV -21.09%E -11.92%K -27.39%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-17 19:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV +16.93%E +8.03%K +15.26%G +2.58% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -21.54%E -12.24%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 19:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV +16.93%E +8.03%K +15.26%G +2.58% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -21.54%E -12.24%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 19:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV +15.27%E +7.34%K +14.14%G +2.16% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -21.54%E -12.24%K -28.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-17 18:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +13.61%E +6.64%K +12.96%G +1.76% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -21.98%E -12.56%K -29.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 19:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +10.84%E +5.42%K +10.84%G +1.17% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -21.98%E -12.56%K -29.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-17 19:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV +18.60%E +8.69%K +16.31%G +3.03% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -23.77%E -13.90%K -33.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-17 19:15 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV +10.84%E +5.42%K +10.84%G +1.17% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -23.77%E -13.90%K -33.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-17 18:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV +13.61%E +6.64%K +12.96%G +1.76% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -24.21%E -14.24%K -34.59%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-17 18:48 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV +10.84%E +5.42%K +10.84%G +1.17% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -24.21%E -14.24%K -34.59%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 19:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV +8.07%E +4.14%K +8.49%G +0.685% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -25.10%E -14.94%K -36.92%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-17 19:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV +13.61%E +6.64%K +12.96%G +1.76% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -25.55%E -15.30%K -38.13%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-17 19:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.1% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.46% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.54% | 6.3% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65% | 9.5% | 2026-03-17 19:25 |