Language:English
Nicolas Mejia v Christopher O'Connell
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nicolas Mejia (Local)
assuming max odds 3.93
Christopher O'Connell (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.32
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nicolas Mejia (Local): 27.47%; Christopher O'Connell (Visit): 72.53%. For Nicolas Mejia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.93, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.96%.
Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.42%EV +7.96%E +2.03%K +2.72%G +0.216% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.58%EV -7.89%E -6.21%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.42%EV +7.96%E +2.03%K +2.72%G +0.216% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.58%EV -7.89%E -6.21%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%EV -2.20%E -0.619%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%EV -4.26%E -3.23%K -13.32%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.12%EV -3.30%E -0.938%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.88%EV -4.99%E -3.81%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.71%E -4.39%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.16%E -5.60%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.23%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.71%E -4.39%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.44%E -4.99%K -22.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.44%E -4.99%K -22.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.71%E -4.39%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-16 18:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -7.16%E -5.60%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -7.89%E -6.21%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-16 18:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -7.89%E -6.21%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-16 18:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.71%E -4.39%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-16 18:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.71%E -4.39%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-16 18:27 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -14.84%E -4.79%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -5.71%E -4.39%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-16 18:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74% | 4.3% | 2026-03-16 18:30 |