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Murphy Cassone v Francesco Maestrelli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Murphy Cassone (Local)
assuming max odds 2.75
Francesco Maestrelli (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.62
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Murphy Cassone (Local): 38.48%; Francesco Maestrelli (Visit): 61.52%. For Murphy Cassone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +5.82%E +2.12%K +3.32%G +0.193% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -10.79%E -7.44%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.72%E -5.15%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.80%E -1.52%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.72%E -5.15%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -5.73%E -2.34%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -9.56%E -6.51%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -6.11%E -2.50%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -2.80%E -1.77%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 00:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.40%EV -8.04%E -3.36%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.60%EV -0.336%E -0.207%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-17 00:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.42%E -3.54%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.87%E -3.84%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-17 00:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -9.57%E -4.07%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -2.80%E -1.77%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-17 00:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.57%E -4.07%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.72%E -5.15%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.50%E -5.00%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.41%E -2.17%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-17 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -11.50%E -5.00%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.41%E -2.17%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-17 00:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -13.42%E -5.97%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -3.41%E -2.17%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-17 00:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -13.42%E -5.97%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -5.26%E -3.41%K -9.74%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.77% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.23% | 1.1% | 2026-03-17 00:20 |