The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Mattia Bellucci v Nicolas Jarry

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mattia Bellucci (Local)

Prediction 60.65%1.65fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%60.85%60.76%65.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.531.6269.44%65.81%65.36%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nicolas Jarry (Visit)

Prediction 39.35%2.54fair odd
EV +9.39%
Edge +3.38%
Kelly +5.28%
Growth +0.496%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.59%39.15%39.24%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.472.402.7845.45%40.45%41.67%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 60.65%; Nicolas Jarry (Visit): 39.35%. For Nicolas Jarry (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -10.85%E -7.38%K -23.07%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV +9.39%E +3.38%K +5.28%G +0.496%4.0%2026-03-17 01:25
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -12.06%E -8.32%K -26.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +6.25%E +2.31%K +3.67%G +0.229%6.0%2026-03-17 01:15
GTbets🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%EV -10.85%E -7.38%K -23.07%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%EV +5.85%E +2.18%K +3.46%G +0.203%5.2%2026-03-17 01:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -6.60%E -4.29%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV +3.10%E +1.18%K +1.91%G +0.059%3.1%2026-03-17 01:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -6.60%E -4.29%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV +3.10%E +1.18%K +1.91%G +0.059%3.1%2026-03-17 01:15
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.66%E -8.79%K -28.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +2.31%E +0.889%K +1.44%G +0.033%7.9%2026-03-17 01:15
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.66%E -8.79%K -28.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +2.31%E +0.889%K +1.44%G +0.033%7.9%2026-03-17 01:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.39%E -3.45%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 01:35
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.99%E -3.87%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 01:35
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.99%E -3.87%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 01:35
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.60%E -4.29%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-17 01:35
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.03%E -6.02%K -18.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.56%E -2.32%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-17 01:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.21%E -4.71%K -13.60%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.74%E -2.84%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 01:35
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -7.81%E -5.14%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -9.49%E -4.13%K -7.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-17 01:35
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.37%EV -8.42%E -5.58%K -16.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.49%E -4.13%K -7.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-17 01:35
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -2.96%E -1.85%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -11.46%E -5.09%K -9.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 01:35
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.75%E -1.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -13.43%E -6.10%K -11.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 01:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-17 01:35