Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Martin Landaluce v Mackenzie McDonald

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Martin Landaluce (Local)

Prediction 43.36%2.31fair odd

EV +2.33%

Edge +0.989%

Kelly +1.72%

Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.80%43.16%43.43%45.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.212.232.3650.00%45.22%44.84%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mackenzie McDonald (Visit)

Prediction 56.64%1.77fair odd

EV -3.72%

Edge -2.19%

Kelly -5.31%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.05%56.84%56.57%61.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.491.631.651.7067.11%61.16%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Landaluce (Local): 43.36%; Mackenzie McDonald (Visit): 56.64%. For Martin Landaluce (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV +2.33%E +0.989%K +1.72%G +0.040%	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -8.25%E -5.09%K -13.30%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-17 00:15
Fliff🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV +1.90%E +0.809%K +1.41%G +0.027%	1.49I 67.11%NM 61.20%EV -15.61%E -10.48%K -31.86%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-17 00:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -0.268%E -0.116%K -0.206%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -12.21%E -7.88%K -22.20%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-17 00:35
LowVig.ag🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -1.13%E -0.498%K -0.887%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-17 00:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -1.13%E -0.498%K -0.887%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -4.85%E -2.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-17 00:15
PlayUp🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -2.44%E -1.08%K -1.95%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -7.68%E -4.71%K -12.19%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-17 00:30
Coral🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.44%E -1.08%K -1.95%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.38%E -5.86%K -15.63%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 00:15
Everygame🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -2.44%E -1.08%K -1.95%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -11.08%E -7.06%K -19.44%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-17 00:15
GTbets🎯	2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.17%E -1.89%K -3.45%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.41%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-17 00:15
Betway🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-17 00:35
Bet Victor🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -4.60%E -2.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.81%E -5.47%K -14.45%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-17 00:33
Coolbet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.72%E -2.19%K -5.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-17 00:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.77%E -3.15%K -5.89%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.28%E -2.53%K -6.21%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-03-17 00:35
theScore Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.94%E -4.26%K -8.13%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.41%E -3.24%K -8.08%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-17 00:35
Betsson🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -11.11%E -5.42%K -10.58%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -6.55%E -3.97%K -10.07%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-17 00:35
NordicBet🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -13.28%E -6.64%K -13.28%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.72%E -2.19%K -5.31%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-17 00:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%	0.5%	2026-03-17 00:35