Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jay Clarke v Shintaro Mochizuki

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jay Clarke (Local)

Prediction 40.49%2.47fair odd

EV +24.70%

Edge +8.02%

Kelly +11.87%

Growth +2.93%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.10%39.76%40.87%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.912.482.303.0852.36%40.28%43.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit)

Prediction 59.51%1.68fair odd

EV +7.13%

Edge +3.96%

Kelly +8.91%

Growth +0.635%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.48%60.24%59.13%68.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.541.571.8073.53%64.84%63.69%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jay Clarke (Local): 40.49%; Shintaro Mochizuki (Visit): 59.51%. For Jay Clarke (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV +24.70%E +8.02%K +11.87%G +2.93%	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -17.28%E -12.43%K -44.30%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-16 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 31.10%EV +24.70%E +8.02%K +11.87%G +2.93%	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.90%EV -17.28%E -12.43%K -44.30%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-16 19:05
Pinnacle🎯	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.57%EV +19.84%E +6.70%K +10.12%G +2.01%	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -14.89%E -10.42%K -34.64%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-03-16 19:20
GTbets🎯	2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV +18.22%E +6.24%K +9.49%G +1.73%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -17.87%E -12.95%K -47.03%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-16 19:15
PlayUp🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +17.41%E +6.00%K +9.16%G +1.60%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -16.68%E -11.91%K -41.70%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-16 19:25
Everygame🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +17.41%E +6.00%K +9.16%G +1.60%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -19.06%E -14.02%K -52.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-16 19:05
Coolbet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV +3.24%E +1.27%K +2.09%G +0.068%	1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -7.75%E -5.00%K -14.10%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-03-16 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -2.83%E -1.18%K -2.02%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.94%E -5.85%K -16.87%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-16 19:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.37%E -3.38%K -9.11%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-16 19:30
theScore Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.37%E -3.38%K -9.11%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-16 19:30
Bet Victor🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.56%E -4.18%K -11.51%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-16 19:29
Betway🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.13%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.80%E -1.09%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-16 19:30
Coral🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -1.80%E -1.09%K -2.77%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-16 19:30
Fliff🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -12.96%E -6.03%K -11.27%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV -5.37%E -3.38%K -9.11%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-16 19:30
Betsson🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -14.98%E -7.13%K -13.62%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -4.78%E -2.99%K -7.96%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-03-16 19:30
NordicBet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -21.05%E -10.80%K -22.16%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +4.15%E +2.37%K +5.53%G +0.230%	8.4%	2026-03-16 19:30
BoyleSports🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -22.67%E -11.87%K -24.91%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV +7.13%E +3.96%K +8.91%G +0.635%	7.9%	2026-03-16 19:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.54I 39.37%NM 38.94%	1.62I 61.73%NM 61.06%	1.1%	2026-03-16 19:30