Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jack Pinnington Jones v Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 16:56 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jack Pinnington Jones (Local)

Prediction 38.72%2.58fair odd
EV +6.85%
Edge +2.48%
Kelly +3.89%
Growth +0.267%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%38.38%39.90%40.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.382.7643.48%40.73%42.11%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chak Lam Coleman Wong (Visit)

Prediction 61.28%1.63fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -5.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.43%61.62%60.10%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.521.5869.44%66.04%65.57%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jack Pinnington Jones (Local): 38.72%; Chak Lam Coleman Wong (Visit): 61.28%. For Jack Pinnington Jones (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV +6.85%E +2.48%K +3.89%G +0.267%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -9.30%E -6.28%K -19.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 16:50
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +6.47%E +2.35%K +3.70%G +0.239%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -11.14%E -7.68%K -24.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-16 16:48
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +0.659%E +0.254%K +0.412%G +0.003%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -11.75%E -8.16%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +0.659%E +0.254%K +0.412%G +0.003%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -11.75%E -8.16%K -26.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-16 16:45
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.08%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.07%E -5.38%K -16.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-16 16:46
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.08%E -2.95%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -9.30%E -6.28%K -19.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-16 16:54
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -9.02%E -3.84%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -3.17%E -2.01%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-16 16:48
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.02%E -3.84%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.78%E -2.41%K -6.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-16 16:45
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.02%E -3.84%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.40%E -2.82%K -7.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-16 16:55
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -3.78%E -2.41%K -6.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-16 16:05
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.01%E -3.23%K -9.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 16:55
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -10.96%E -4.76%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.01%E -3.23%K -9.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-16 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 32.73%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.27%2.5%2026-03-16 16:55