Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ignacio Buse v Chak Lam Coleman Wong

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 15:19 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

45%

55%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ignacio Buse (Local)

Prediction 45.06%2.22fair odd

EV +10.40%

Edge +4.24%

Kelly +7.17%

Growth +0.746%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.21%44.87%44.30%49.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.902.162.152.4552.63%46.28%46.51%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chak Lam Coleman Wong (Visit)

Prediction 54.94%1.82fair odd

EV +1.64%

Edge +0.886%

Kelly +1.93%

Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.67%55.13%55.70%60.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.521.671.671.8565.79%59.80%59.88%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ignacio Buse (Local): 45.06%; Chak Lam Coleman Wong (Visit): 54.94%. For Ignacio Buse (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV +10.40%E +4.24%K +7.17%G +0.746%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -13.20%E -8.35%K -22.75%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-17 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV +7.24%E +3.04%K +5.25%G +0.380%	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-17 15:14
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV +7.24%E +3.04%K +5.25%G +0.380%	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -10.45%E -6.41%K -16.58%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-03-17 15:14
Coral🎯	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV +6.79%E +2.87%K +4.96%G +0.337%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -14.84%E -9.58%K -26.99%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-17 15:00
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +5.89%E +2.51%K +4.36%G +0.257%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -11.55%E -7.17%K -18.93%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-17 14:59
Everygame🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV +5.89%E +2.51%K +4.36%G +0.257%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -15.94%E -10.42%K -30.08%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-17 14:58
ReBet🎯	2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV +4.99%E +2.14%K +3.75%G +0.187%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -11.55%E -7.17%K -18.93%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-17 14:59
PlayUp🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +3.64%E +1.58%K +2.80%G +0.102%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -12.10%E -7.56%K -20.16%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-17 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 40.93%EV +2.74%E +1.20%K +2.14%G +0.059%	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -13.20%E -8.35%K -22.75%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-17 15:00
NetBet (FR)🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 40.64%EV +0.034%E +0.015%K +0.028%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 59.36%EV -16.49%E -10.85%K -31.71%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-03-17 15:00
Coolbet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.12%E -1.45%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-17 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -3.12%E -1.45%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.37%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-03-17 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -3.12%E -1.45%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -9.35%E -5.67%K -14.38%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-17 15:15
BoyleSports🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.37%E -2.56%K -4.88%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-17 15:15
TAB🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.33%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-03-17 15:15
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.63%E -3.72%K -7.26%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-03-17 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -8.53%E -4.20%K -8.28%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -1.11%E -0.616%K -1.39%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-17 15:15
Betway🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.88%E -4.94%K -9.88%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.11%E -0.616%K -1.39%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-17 15:15
Paddy Power🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.88%E -4.94%K -9.88%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.95%E -2.86%K -6.79%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 15:15
theScore Bet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -13.93%E -7.30%K -15.31%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +0.539%E +0.295%K +0.650%G +0.004%	7.0%	2026-03-17 15:15
Bet Victor🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -14.39%E -7.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV +1.64%E +0.886%K +1.93%G +0.032%	6.7%	2026-03-17 15:15
NordicBet🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -14.39%E -7.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -1.11%E -0.616%K -1.39%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-17 15:15
Betsson🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -14.39%E -7.57%K -15.98%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -3.86%E -2.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-17 15:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%	1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%	0.4%	2026-03-17 15:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72%	1.3%	2026-03-17 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%	2.5%	2026-03-17 15:15
Novig◎	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%	3.7%	2026-03-17 15:14
Smarkets◎	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%	6.7%	2026-03-17 15:15