The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cristian Garin v Liam Draxl

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 20:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cristian Garin (Local)

Prediction 54.83%1.82fair odd
EV +0.893%
Edge +0.485%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.96%54.84%54.55%57.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.721.701.8462.11%58.03%58.82%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Liam Draxl (Visit)

Prediction 45.17%2.21fair odd
EV -0.632%
Edge -0.287%
Kelly -0.527%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%45.16%45.45%48.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.072.052.2050.51%48.37%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cristian Garin (Local): 54.83%; Liam Draxl (Visit): 45.17%. For Cristian Garin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.893%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV +0.893%E +0.485%K +1.06%G +0.009%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -10.12%E -5.08%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 20:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV +0.893%E +0.485%K +1.06%G +0.009%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -10.12%E -5.08%K -10.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-16 20:05
GTbets🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -1.30%E -0.723%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -8.76%E -4.34%K -8.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-16 19:59
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -1.30%E -0.723%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -10.57%E -5.34%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 20:05
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -2.40%E -1.35%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 20:05
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.04%E -2.31%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-16 20:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.59%E -2.64%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.41%E -3.61%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 20:10
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.41%E -3.61%K -7.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-16 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.67%E -4.83%K -9.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 20:10
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.78%E -3.99%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -9.67%E -4.83%K -9.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 20:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.43%E -5.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -2.89%E -1.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-16 20:10
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.43%E -5.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-16 20:08
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.43%E -5.05%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.15%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-16 20:10
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.53%E -5.77%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -0.632%E -0.287%K -0.527%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 20:10
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -9.53%E -5.77%K -14.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -7.41%E -3.61%K -7.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-16 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -11.72%E -7.28%K -19.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -0.632%E -0.287%K -0.527%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-16 20:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.35%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.65%3.2%2026-03-16 20:10