Language:English
Alex Bolt v Sho Shimabukuro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex Bolt (Local)
assuming max odds 4.33
Sho Shimabukuro (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.52
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex Bolt (Local): 26.54%; Sho Shimabukuro (Visit): 73.46%. For Alex Bolt (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -33.65%E -13.46%K -22.44%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +11.66%E +7.67%K +22.43%G +2.62% | 5.8% | 2026-03-16 18:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.21%EV -29.41%E -11.06%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.79%EV +10.93%E +7.24%K +21.42%G +2.34% | 3.8% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -25.69%E -9.18%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV +8.72%E +5.89%K +18.17%G +1.59% | 3.3% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -25.69%E -9.18%K -14.27%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV +8.72%E +5.89%K +18.17%G +1.59% | 3.3% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -28.88%E -10.77%K -17.19%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV +8.72%E +5.89%K +18.17%G +1.59% | 4.9% | 2026-03-16 18:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -13.75%E -4.23%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -4.50%E -3.46%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-16 18:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.480%E -0.128%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.23%E -4.06%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.11%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.23%E -4.06%K -18.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -7.44%E -5.90%K -28.61%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV +2.17%E +0.565%K +0.763%G +0.017% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -8.17%E -6.54%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.480%E -0.128%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.17%E -6.54%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.480%E -0.128%K -0.174%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.17%E -6.54%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -4.46%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.17%E -6.54%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -8.17%E -6.54%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -8.44%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -8.17%E -6.54%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +14.91%E +3.44%K +4.48%G +0.668% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -11.85%E -9.87%K -59.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-16 18:14 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30% | 5.2% | 2026-03-16 18:15 |