Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Vukic v Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 21:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aleksandar Vukic (Local)

Prediction 50.27%1.99fair odd

EV +1.03%

Edge +0.514%

Kelly +1.02%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.37%50.14%50.13%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.731.881.872.0157.80%53.33%53.48%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit)

Prediction 49.73%2.01fair odd

EV +1.46%

Edge +0.715%

Kelly +1.40%

Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.38%49.86%49.87%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.771.881.882.0456.50%53.08%53.19%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aleksandar Vukic (Local): 50.27%; Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit): 49.73%. For Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.01. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -11.03%E -6.23%K -14.32%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV +1.46%E +0.715%K +1.40%G +0.020%	5.5%	2026-03-17 21:39
Paddy Power🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.04%E -7.54%K -17.86%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -0.531%E -0.265%K -0.531%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 21:40
GTbets🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -7.51%E -4.08%K -8.94%G +0.000%	1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -1.03%E -0.517%K -1.04%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-17 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.01%E -3.79%K -8.25%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -1.53%E -0.770%K -1.56%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-17 21:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -7.01%E -3.79%K -8.25%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -1.53%E -0.770%K -1.56%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-17 21:40
Coolbet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -6.00%E -3.21%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.02%E -1.55%K -3.18%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-17 21:40
Bovada🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.09%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.50%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-17 21:15
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.50%E -2.37%K -5.00%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.50%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-17 21:29
ReBet🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.50%E -2.37%K -5.00%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.50%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-17 21:30
Bet Victor🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.52%E -5.29%K -11.90%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.50%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-17 21:01
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.50%E -2.93%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -5.50%E -2.90%K -6.12%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-17 21:35
TAB🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.52%E -5.29%K -11.90%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.50%E -2.90%K -6.12%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-17 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 50.27%EV -6.51%E -3.50%K -7.57%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.73%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 21:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.21%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.74%K -8.04%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 21:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.21%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.74%K -8.04%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 21:35
Betsson🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -7.01%E -3.79%K -8.25%G +0.000%	1.86I 53.76%NM 49.87%EV -7.49%E -4.03%K -8.71%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 21:35
NordicBet🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.13%EV -7.01%E -3.79%K -8.25%G +0.000%	1.86I 53.76%NM 49.87%EV -7.49%E -4.03%K -8.71%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-17 21:30
Pinnacle🎯	2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV +1.03%E +0.514%K +1.02%G +0.011%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -8.99%E -4.91%K -10.83%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-03-17 21:45
Betway🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.531%E +0.265%K +0.531%G +0.003%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.48%E -5.82%K -13.10%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-17 21:45
PlayUp🎯	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -0.474%E -0.240%K -0.484%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -10.48%E -5.82%K -13.10%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-17 21:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -1.98%E -1.02%K -2.09%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -10.48%E -5.82%K -13.10%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-17 21:45
Coral🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -1.98%E -1.02%K -2.09%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -10.48%E -5.82%K -13.10%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-17 21:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 50.28%EV -10.53%E -5.91%K -13.50%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 49.72%EV -10.48%E -5.82%K -13.10%G +0.000%	11.7%	2026-03-17 21:30
Marathon Bet🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -4.50%E -2.37%K -5.00%G +0.000%	1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -11.47%E -6.45%K -14.71%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-17 21:45
Fliff🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -3.99%E -2.09%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -11.97%E -6.76%K -15.55%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-17 21:32

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%	1.2%	2026-03-17 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%	1.2%	2026-03-17 21:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.38%	1.68I 59.52%NM 58.62%	1.5%	2026-03-17 21:45
Smarkets◎	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%	4.3%	2026-03-17 21:45