Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zachary Svajda v Rei Sakamoto

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zachary Svajda (Local)

Prediction 39.84%2.51fair odd
EV +19.52%
Edge +6.51%
Kelly +9.76%
Growth +1.91%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.03%39.41%39.79%40.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.383.0043.48%40.86%42.02%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rei Sakamoto (Visit)

Prediction 60.16%1.66fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -4.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.13%60.59%60.21%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.531.531.6274.07%65.25%65.36%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 39.84%; Rei Sakamoto (Visit): 60.16%. For Zachary Svajda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV +19.52%E +6.51%K +9.76%G +1.91%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -18.78%E -13.91%K -53.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 08:13
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +11.55%E +4.13%K +6.42%G +0.742%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -15.78%E -11.27%K -39.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 08:12
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +3.59%E +1.38%K +2.24%G +0.080%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -12.77%E -8.81%K -28.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 08:15
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -1.99%E -0.810%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.95%E -3.13%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-20 08:05
GTbets🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.59%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -3.14%E -1.95%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-20 07:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.38%E -1.83%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.54%E -1.57%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-20 08:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.38%E -1.83%K -3.13%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.54%E -1.57%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-20 08:05
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.18%E -2.18%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.96%E -5.20%K -15.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-20 08:15
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.37%E -2.71%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.95%E -3.13%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-20 08:05
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.37%E -2.71%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.96%E -5.20%K -15.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-20 07:58
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -6.37%E -2.71%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.76%E -6.51%K -19.52%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-20 08:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.35%E -2.73%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 08:05
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.35%E -2.73%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-20 08:14
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.56%E -5.63%K -16.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-20 08:15
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.56%E -5.63%K -16.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-20 08:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%1.6%2026-04-20 08:15