Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.00
assuming max odds 1.62
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 39.84%; Rei Sakamoto (Visit): 60.16%. For Zachary Svajda (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.52%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV +19.52%E +6.51%K +9.76%G +1.91% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -18.78%E -13.91%K -53.67%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-20 08:13 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV +11.55%E +4.13%K +6.42%G +0.742% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -15.78%E -11.27%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-20 08:12 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV +3.59%E +1.38%K +2.24%G +0.080% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -12.77%E -8.81%K -28.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -1.99%E -0.810%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -4.95%E -3.13%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.59%E -1.48%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -3.14%E -1.95%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-20 07:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.38%E -1.83%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.54%E -1.57%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -4.38%E -1.83%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.54%E -1.57%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.18%E -2.18%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.96%E -5.20%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -6.37%E -2.71%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.95%E -3.13%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.37%E -2.71%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.96%E -5.20%K -15.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-20 07:58 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -6.37%E -2.71%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.76%E -6.51%K -19.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.35%E -2.73%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-20 08:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.35%E -2.73%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-20 08:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.56%E -5.63%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -8.37%E -3.64%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -8.56%E -5.63%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66% | 1.6% | 2026-04-20 08:15 |