Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wu Yibing v Titouan Droguet

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wu Yibing (Local)

Prediction 42.38%2.36fair odd
EV +16.53%
Edge +6.01%
Kelly +9.45%
Growth +1.56%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%43.02%37.50%55.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.672.111.992.7559.88%47.46%50.38%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Titouan Droguet (Visit)

Prediction 57.62%1.74fair odd
EV +23.89%
Edge +11.11%
Kelly +20.78%
Growth +4.96%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.87%56.98%62.50%65.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.761.812.1571.43%56.68%55.25%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wu Yibing (Local): 42.38%; Titouan Droguet (Visit): 57.62%. For Titouan Droguet (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -25.84%E -14.77%K -34.46%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV +23.89%E +11.11%K +20.78%G +4.96%3.7%2026-04-21 11:30
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -22.45%E -12.27%K -27.05%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV +21.01%E +10.01%K +19.10%G +4.01%2.3%2026-04-21 11:25
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -25.84%E -14.77%K -34.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +18.13%E +8.84%K +17.27%G +3.13%5.9%2026-04-21 11:30
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -27.96%E -16.45%K -39.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV +15.25%E +7.62%K +15.25%G +2.33%8.8%2026-04-21 11:00
Betsson🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -26.69%E -15.43%K -36.56%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV +14.67%E +7.37%K +14.82%G +2.17%8.1%2026-04-21 10:57
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -21.18%E -11.39%K -24.63%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV +12.94%E +6.60%K +13.48%G +1.75%4.8%2026-04-21 11:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -20.76%E -11.10%K -23.86%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +12.37%E +6.34%K +13.02%G +1.61%4.8%2026-04-21 11:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.87%EV -29.23%E -17.50%K -43.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.13%EV +12.37%E +6.34%K +13.02%G +1.61%11.2%2026-04-21 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.77%E -2.26%K -5.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 11:40
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -11.01%E -5.24%K -10.01%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -7.23%E -4.49%K -11.84%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-21 11:40
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -2.54%E -1.10%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.68%E -6.89%K -19.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 11:40
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +5.94%E +2.38%K +3.96%G +0.235%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -13.56%E -9.04%K -27.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 11:40
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV +3.82%E +1.56%K +2.63%G +0.101%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -15.29%E -10.40%K -32.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-21 11:40
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +16.53%E +6.01%K +9.45%G +1.56%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -17.02%E -11.82%K -38.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV +12.30%E +4.64%K +7.45%G +0.916%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -17.02%E -11.82%K -38.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-21 11:40
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV +14.41%E +5.34%K +8.48%G +1.22%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -19.33%E -13.80%K -48.32%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.72%3.2%2026-04-21 11:40