Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys v Jaime Faria

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys (Local)

Prediction 56.96%1.76fair odd

EV +0.826%

Edge +0.467%

Kelly +1.07%

Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.05%57.65%57.59%64.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.641.651.7766.67%60.93%60.61%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaime Faria (Visit)

Prediction 43.04%2.32fair odd

EV +16.20%

Edge +6.00%

Kelly +9.53%

Growth +1.54%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.71%42.35%42.41%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.182.102.7050.00%45.98%47.62%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Quentin Halys (Local): 56.96%; Jaime Faria (Visit): 43.04%. For Jaime Faria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -14.55%E -9.70%K -29.11%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV +16.20%E +6.00%K +9.53%G +1.54%	3.7%	2026-04-20 11:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.72%E -4.76%K -12.45%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.32%E -2.42%K -4.43%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-20 11:54
Betway🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.86%E -5.54%K -14.76%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.32%E -2.42%K -4.43%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 11:54
Coral🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.87%E -2.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 11:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.87%E -2.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 11:55
Betsson🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -6.01%E -3.64%K -9.25%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -11.78%E -5.74%K -11.22%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-04-20 11:55
NordicBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -6.01%E -3.64%K -9.25%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -11.78%E -5.74%K -11.22%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-04-20 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +0.826%E +0.467%K +1.07%G +0.009%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -13.93%E -6.96%K -13.93%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-20 11:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%	2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%	0.5%	2026-04-20 11:55