Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Kypson v Nikoloz Basilashvili

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

52%

48%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Kypson (Local)

Prediction 51.90%1.93fair odd

EV +3.80%

Edge +1.90%

Kelly +3.80%

Growth +0.144%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.37%51.46%52.00%54.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.801.752.0058.82%55.69%57.14%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nikoloz Basilashvili (Visit)

Prediction 48.10%2.08fair odd

EV -1.40%

Edge -0.681%

Kelly -1.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.77%48.54%48.00%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.951.952.0555.56%51.19%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Patrick Kypson (Local): 51.90%; Nikoloz Basilashvili (Visit): 48.10%. For Patrick Kypson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +3.80%E +1.90%K +3.80%G +0.144%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -13.42%E -7.46%K -16.78%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-04-21 14:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV +0.686%E +0.354%K +0.730%G +0.005%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-21 14:50
theScore Bet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.22%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-21 14:50
Fliff🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -8.14%E -4.60%K -10.57%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -10.05%E -5.38%K -11.56%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-04-21 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -9.17%E -5.24%K -12.23%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.21%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-21 14:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.69%E -5.57%K -13.10%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -1.40%E -0.681%K -1.33%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-21 14:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -10.21%E -5.90%K -13.99%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -1.40%E -0.681%K -1.33%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-21 14:55
Coral🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.21%E -5.90%K -13.99%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-21 14:55
NordicBet🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -11.77%E -6.92%K -16.81%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-04-21 14:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%	1.2%	2026-04-21 14:55