Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Kypson v Moise Kouame

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Patrick Kypson (Local)

Prediction 58.75%1.70fair odd

EV +0.468%

Edge +0.273%

Kelly +0.659%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.05%58.62%58.90%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.621.601.7164.94%61.60%62.50%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Moise Kouame (Visit)

Prediction 41.25%2.42fair odd

EV +0.230%

Edge +0.095%

Kelly +0.161%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.70%41.38%41.10%45.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.002.232.202.4350.00%44.88%45.45%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Patrick Kypson (Local): 58.75%; Moise Kouame (Visit): 41.25%. For Patrick Kypson (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.468%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV +0.468%E +0.273%K +0.659%G +0.003%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -9.26%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-20 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV +0.468%E +0.273%K +0.659%G +0.003%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -9.26%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-20 17:48
GTbets🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV +0.468%E +0.273%K +0.659%G +0.003%	2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -9.67%E -4.42%K -8.13%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-04-20 17:39
Everygame🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -0.120%E -0.071%K -0.171%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -17.51%E -8.75%K -17.51%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-04-20 17:15
PlayUp🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -1.29%E -0.771%K -1.90%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -11.32%E -5.26%K -9.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-20 17:50
Pinnacle🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -9.99%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV +0.230%E +0.095%K +0.161%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-04-20 17:55
Coral🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -9.99%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.76%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-20 17:55
Betway🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -9.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.26%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 17:54
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -9.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.26%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 17:55
Betsson🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.00%E -3.75%K -9.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.26%E -4.21%K -7.71%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 17:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.58%E -4.14%K -11.16%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.13%E -2.23%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-20 17:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.76%E -4.94%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.07%E -1.31%K -2.27%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-20 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.76%E -4.94%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.76%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 17:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.76%E -4.94%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.76%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 17:54
Fliff🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -9.52%E -6.18%K -17.63%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.19%E -3.20%K -5.76%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-04-20 17:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%	1.2%	2026-04-20 17:55