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Pablo Llamas Ruiz v Elmer Moller
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local)
assuming max odds 1.36
Elmer Moller (Visit)
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local): 71.44%; Elmer Moller (Visit): 28.56%. For Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.36, with an expected value of -2.84%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -2.84%E -2.09%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-21 08:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.34%EV -3.56%E -2.64%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.66%EV -4.03%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-21 09:01 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.15%EV -3.56%E -2.64%K -10.17%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%EV -4.89%E -1.47%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -4.27%E -3.19%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -5.18%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -4.27%E -3.19%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -5.18%E -1.56%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.99%E -3.75%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -11.46%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.99%E -3.75%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -14.32%E -4.77%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-21 08:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.42%E -4.90%K -20.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.75%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-21 09:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.13%E -5.48%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.13%E -5.48%K -23.77%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.84%E -6.08%K -27.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -2.89%E -0.850%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-21 09:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -7.84%E -6.08%K -27.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -8.56%E -6.69%K -30.57%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -12.89%E -4.23%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-21 09:01 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59%EV -9.27%E -7.30%K -34.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59%EV -9.27%E -7.30%K -34.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-21 09:10 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98% | 3.0% | 2026-04-21 09:05 |