Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Otto Virtanen v Titouan Droguet

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Otto Virtanen (Local)

Prediction 54.53%1.83fair odd

EV +23.24%

Edge +10.28%

Kelly +18.45%

Growth +4.29%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.64%53.53%55.99%59.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.811.672.2663.69%55.25%59.88%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Titouan Droguet (Visit)

Prediction 45.47%2.20fair odd

EV +4.58%

Edge +1.99%

Kelly +3.52%

Growth +0.161%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.57%46.47%44.01%57.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.652.002.102.3060.61%50.07%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Otto Virtanen (Local): 54.53%; Titouan Droguet (Visit): 45.47%. For Otto Virtanen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV +23.24%E +10.28%K +18.45%G +4.29%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -23.61%E -14.06%K -34.72%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-20 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +14.52%E +6.91%K +13.20%G +1.92%	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -19.52%E -11.03%K -25.35%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-04-20 09:15
PlayUp🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV +14.52%E +6.91%K +13.20%G +1.92%	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -21.79%E -12.67%K -30.27%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-20 09:40
Everygame🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV +14.52%E +6.91%K +13.20%G +1.92%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -24.98%E -15.14%K -38.43%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-20 08:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.84%E -4.64%K -11.37%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.24%E -1.04%K -1.95%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-20 09:54
theScore Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -8.93%E -5.35%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.52%E -2.15%K -4.11%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 09:55
NordicBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -10.02%E -6.07%K -15.42%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -6.79%E -3.31%K -6.47%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-04-20 09:54
Betway🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -12.75%E -7.97%K -21.25%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV +0.031%E +0.014%K +0.026%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 09:55
Betsson🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -12.75%E -7.97%K -21.25%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -2.24%E -1.04%K -1.95%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-04-20 09:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -14.39%E -9.16%K -25.24%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +4.58%E +1.99%K +3.52%G +0.161%	7.2%	2026-04-20 09:55
Fliff🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -14.39%E -9.16%K -25.24%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV +0.031%E +0.014%K +0.026%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-20 09:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.82%	6.8%	2026-04-20 09:55