A Escola das Odds

Jannik Sinner v Alexander Zverev

Início: 2026-05-03 16:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

41 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Jannik Sinner (Local)

Previsão 94.92%1.05odd justa
EV -0.337%
Vantagem -0.321%
Kelly -6.73%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.05

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
91.07%94.78%94.69%98.67%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.001.011.011.05100.00%98.65%99.01%95.24%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Alexander Zverev (Visitante)

Previsão 5.08%19.67odd justa
EV +276.11%
Vantagem +3.73%
Kelly +3.78%
Crescimento +10.44%

pressupondo odds máximas de 74.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
1.33%5.22%5.31%8.93%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
10.5022.4617.0074.009.52%4.45%5.88%1.35%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (41 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings1.00I 100.00%NM 98.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%74.00I 1.35%NM 1.33%EV +276.11%E +3.73%K +3.78%G +10.44%1.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Paddy Power1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +240.54%E +3.59%K +3.64%G +8.77%1.5%2026-05-03 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.00I 100.00%NM 97.87%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.13%EV +133.80%E +2.91%K +2.97%G +3.98%2.2%2026-05-03 15:55
Coral1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +108.39%E +2.64%K +2.71%G +2.94%2.4%2026-05-03 15:55
BetMGM1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +72.81%E +2.14%K +2.21%G +1.61%2.0%2026-05-03 15:55
BoyleSports1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +72.81%E +2.14%K +2.21%G +1.61%2.9%2026-05-03 15:55
theScore Bet1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +72.81%E +2.14%K +2.21%G +1.61%2.9%2026-05-03 15:53
888sport1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.40%E +1.63%K +1.69%G +0.802%3.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Mr Green (SE)1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.40%E +1.63%K +1.69%G +0.802%3.4%2026-05-03 15:55
888sport (SE)1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.40%E +1.63%K +1.69%G +0.802%3.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Betway1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +32.15%E +1.24%K +1.29%G +0.413%3.8%2026-05-03 15:50
Unibet (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
Casumo1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
Svenska Spel1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
ATG (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
Fanatics1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.73%E +0.321%K +0.337%G +0.023%4.8%2026-05-03 15:54
Caesars1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.73%E +0.321%K +0.337%G +0.023%4.8%2026-05-03 15:55
Pinnacle1.04I 96.15%NM 95.21%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.15%G +0.000%20.68I 4.84%NM 4.79%EV +5.11%E +0.247%K +0.260%G +0.013%1.0%2026-05-03 15:40
Winamax (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +1.65%E +0.083%K +0.087%G +0.001%4.0%2026-05-03 15:49
Winamax (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -8.51%E -0.473%K -0.501%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-03 15:49
Coolbet1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV -13.60%E -0.800%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 15:45
betPARX1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -13.60%E -0.800%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 15:50
Bet Victor1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -13.60%E -0.800%K -0.850%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 15:54
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -18.68%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:49
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -18.68%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:50
Hard Rock Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -18.68%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:49
Betclic (FR)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -23.76%E -1.58%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 15:29
TABtouch1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -23.76%E -1.58%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:50
LiveScore Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.84%E -2.06%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:48
Virgin Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.84%E -2.06%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:48
TAB1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.84%E -2.06%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:47
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -33.93%E -2.61%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:48
Unibet (NL)1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -39.01%E -3.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Grosvenor1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -39.01%E -3.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -39.01%E -3.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 15:47
Unibet1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -0.337%E -0.321%K -6.73%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:46
Betsson1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:45
NordicBet1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Tipico (DE)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 15:30
BetRivers1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -46.63%E -4.44%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -46.63%E -4.44%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 15:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.58%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Matchbook1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Smarkets1.00I 100.00%NM 97.96%48.08I 2.08%NM 2.04%2.1%2026-05-03 15:55
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 93.20%13.70I 7.30%NM 6.80%7.3%2026-05-03 15:55