L’École des cotes

Jannik Sinner v Alexander Zverev

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-03 16:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

41 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jannik Sinner (Local)

Prévision 94.92%1.05cote équitable
EV -0.337%
Avantage -0.321%
Kelly -6.73%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
91.07%94.78%94.69%98.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.001.011.011.05100.00%98.65%99.01%95.24%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alexander Zverev (Visiteur)

Prévision 5.08%19.67cote équitable
EV +276.11%
Avantage +3.73%
Kelly +3.78%
Croissance +10.44%

avec la cote maximale 74.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
1.33%5.22%5.31%8.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
10.5022.4617.0074.009.52%4.45%5.88%1.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (41 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
DraftKings1.00I 100.00%NM 98.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%74.00I 1.35%NM 1.33%EV +276.11%E +3.73%K +3.78%G +10.44%1.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Paddy Power1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +240.54%E +3.59%K +3.64%G +8.77%1.5%2026-05-03 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.00I 100.00%NM 97.87%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.13%EV +133.80%E +2.91%K +2.97%G +3.98%2.2%2026-05-03 15:55
Coral1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +108.39%E +2.64%K +2.71%G +2.94%2.4%2026-05-03 15:55
BetMGM1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +72.81%E +2.14%K +2.21%G +1.61%2.0%2026-05-03 15:55
BoyleSports1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +72.81%E +2.14%K +2.21%G +1.61%2.9%2026-05-03 15:55
theScore Bet1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +72.81%E +2.14%K +2.21%G +1.61%2.9%2026-05-03 15:53
888sport1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.40%E +1.63%K +1.69%G +0.802%3.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Mr Green (SE)1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.40%E +1.63%K +1.69%G +0.802%3.4%2026-05-03 15:55
888sport (SE)1.00I 100.00%NM 96.67%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.33%EV +47.40%E +1.63%K +1.69%G +0.802%3.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Betway1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +32.15%E +1.24%K +1.29%G +0.413%3.8%2026-05-03 15:50
Unibet (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
Casumo1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
Svenska Spel1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
ATG (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +16.90%E +0.735%K +0.768%G +0.130%3.4%2026-05-03 15:50
Fanatics1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.73%E +0.321%K +0.337%G +0.023%4.8%2026-05-03 15:54
Caesars1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.73%E +0.321%K +0.337%G +0.023%4.8%2026-05-03 15:55
Pinnacle1.04I 96.15%NM 95.21%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.15%G +0.000%20.68I 4.84%NM 4.79%EV +5.11%E +0.247%K +0.260%G +0.013%1.0%2026-05-03 15:40
Winamax (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +1.65%E +0.083%K +0.087%G +0.001%4.0%2026-05-03 15:49
Winamax (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -8.51%E -0.473%K -0.501%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-03 15:49
Coolbet1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV -13.60%E -0.800%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 15:45
betPARX1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -13.60%E -0.800%K -0.850%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 15:50
Bet Victor1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -5.08%E -5.08%K +0.000%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -13.60%E -0.800%K -0.850%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 15:54
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -18.68%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:49
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -18.68%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:50
Hard Rock Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -18.68%E -1.17%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:49
Betclic (FR)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -23.76%E -1.58%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-03 15:29
TABtouch1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -23.76%E -1.58%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:50
LiveScore Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.84%E -2.06%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:48
Virgin Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.84%E -2.06%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:48
TAB1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -28.84%E -2.06%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:47
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -33.93%E -2.61%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 15:48
Unibet (NL)1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -1.29%E -1.24%K -32.15%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -39.01%E -3.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-03 15:45
Grosvenor1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -39.01%E -3.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -4.13%E -4.09%K -413.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -39.01%E -3.25%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 15:47
Unibet1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -0.337%E -0.321%K -6.73%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-03 15:46
Betsson1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:45
NordicBet1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 15:45
Tipico (DE)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -44.09%E -4.01%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 15:30
BetRivers1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -2.24%E -2.17%K -74.50%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -46.63%E -4.44%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -3.18%E -3.12%K -159.21%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -46.63%E -4.44%K -4.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 15:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.58%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.42%0.4%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Matchbook1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-05-03 15:55
Smarkets1.00I 100.00%NM 97.96%48.08I 2.08%NM 2.04%2.1%2026-05-03 15:55
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 93.20%13.70I 7.30%NM 6.80%7.3%2026-05-03 15:55