Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henrique Rocha v Jan Choinski

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Henrique Rocha (Local)

Prediction 64.36%1.55fair odd

EV -3.46%

Edge -2.31%

Kelly -6.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.50%64.45%64.36%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.451.451.5071.43%68.74%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jan Choinski (Visit)

Prediction 35.64%2.81fair odd

EV +3.35%

Edge +1.16%

Kelly +1.77%

Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.18%35.55%35.64%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.502.632.602.9040.00%37.99%38.46%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Henrique Rocha (Local): 64.36%; Jan Choinski (Visit): 35.64%. For Jan Choinski (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.64%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV +3.35%E +1.16%K +1.77%G +0.059%	3.9%	2026-04-20 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.39%E -3.67%K -11.47%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -1.99%E -0.724%K -1.14%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-04-20 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.39%E -3.67%K -11.47%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -1.99%E -0.724%K -1.14%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-04-20 14:30
Everygame🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.90%E -7.07%K -24.74%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -1.99%E -0.724%K -1.14%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-20 14:10
PlayUp🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.68%E -4.60%K -14.84%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.77%E -1.40%K -2.22%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-20 14:10
GTbets🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -4.75%E -3.21%K -9.89%G +0.000%	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -4.49%E -1.67%K -2.67%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-04-20 14:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.64%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.56%E -2.10%K -3.37%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-20 14:35
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.68%E -4.60%K -14.84%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-20 14:35
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.64%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-04-20 14:34
Fliff🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -8.61%E -6.06%K -20.50%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -7.34%E -2.82%K -4.59%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-04-20 14:35
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.46%E -2.31%K -6.92%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-20 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -4.75%E -3.21%K -9.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 14:35
Coral🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -4.75%E -3.21%K -9.89%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 14:35
Betsson🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.68%E -4.60%K -14.84%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-04-20 14:35
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -6.68%E -4.60%K -14.84%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -10.90%E -4.36%K -7.27%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-04-20 14:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 65.91%	2.90I 34.48%NM 34.09%	1.1%	2026-04-20 14:35