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Elmer Moller v Federico Coria
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Elmer Moller (Local)
Prediction 62.65%1.60fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.90%62.79%62.50%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.501.501.5772.46%66.81%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Federico Coria (Visit)
Prediction 37.35%2.68fair odd
EV +8.31%
Edge +2.86%
Kelly +4.37%
Growth +0.363%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%37.21%37.50%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.502.9044.44%39.99%40.00%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elmer Moller (Local): 62.65%; Federico Coria (Visit): 37.35%. For Federico Coria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -13.54%E -9.81%K -35.63%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV +8.31%E +2.86%K +4.37%G +0.363% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 14:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.82%EV -8.53%E -5.84%K -18.53%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.18%EV +0.462%E +0.172%K +0.274%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV -4.77%E -3.14%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%EV -1.40%E -0.532%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-22 14:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.65%E -4.46%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.78%E -0.676%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.65%E -4.46%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.78%E -0.676%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.65%E -4.46%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.78%E -0.676%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.65%E -4.46%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.78%E -0.676%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.77%E -3.14%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.39%E -3.57%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.39%E -3.57%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.39%E -3.57%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.27%E -4.91%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 14:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.27%E -4.91%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.27%E -4.91%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.23%EV -11.03%E -7.77%K -26.27%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -4.77%E -1.87%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-22 14:51 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.39%E -3.57%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 14:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 14:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 14:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.02%E -4.01%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.78%E -6.79%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.63%E -2.65%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -1.63%E -1.04%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -8.50%E -3.47%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 14:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.65%E -4.46%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.50%E -3.47%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -7.27%E -4.91%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -8.50%E -3.47%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -9.15%E -6.31%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -8.50%E -3.47%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.26%E -1.45%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -10.37%E -4.32%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -2.89%E -1.86%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.37%E -4.32%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-22 14:32 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -9.78%E -6.79%K -22.23%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.37%E -4.32%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.14%E -2.71%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -11.12%E -4.67%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.36%EV -7.27%E -4.91%K -15.15%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -12.24%E -5.21%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.84%EV -9.15%E -6.31%K -20.34%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -12.24%E -5.21%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -1.63%E -1.04%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -14.10%E -6.13%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -1.63%E -1.04%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -15.97%E -7.10%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -1.63%E -1.04%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -15.97%E -7.10%K -12.78%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 0.6% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15% | 1.7% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.65% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.35% | 2.7% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 14:55 |