Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic v Zsombor Piros

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic (Local)

Prediction 62.05%1.61fair odd

EV -2.59%

Edge -1.65%

Kelly -4.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.76%62.48%62.09%65.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.511.501.5771.43%66.36%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zsombor Piros (Visit)

Prediction 37.95%2.63fair odd

EV +4.37%

Edge +1.59%

Kelly +2.50%

Growth +0.109%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.05%37.52%37.91%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.522.502.7541.67%39.71%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dino Prizmic (Local): 62.05%; Zsombor Piros (Visit): 37.95%. For Zsombor Piros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -11.89%E -8.37%K -28.32%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +4.37%E +1.59%K +2.50%G +0.109%	6.8%	2026-04-21 15:55
NordicBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -13.13%E -9.38%K -32.83%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV +0.574%E +0.217%K +0.348%G +0.002%	9.2%	2026-04-21 15:55
GTbets🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -6.93%E -4.62%K -13.86%G +0.000%	2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -0.944%E -0.362%K -0.586%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-04-21 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -2.59%E -1.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%	2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -4.74%E -1.89%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-04-21 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -2.59%E -1.65%K -4.54%G +0.000%	2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -4.74%E -1.89%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.5%	2026-04-21 15:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.67%EV -3.21%E -2.05%K -5.72%G +0.000%	2.51I 39.84%NM 38.33%EV -4.74%E -1.89%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-21 15:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.93%E -4.62%K -13.86%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.12%E -2.05%K -3.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 15:45
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.93%E -4.62%K -13.86%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.12%E -2.05%K -3.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 15:00
Fliff🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -7.55%E -5.07%K -15.41%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -5.12%E -2.05%K -3.41%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-21 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -8.17%E -5.52%K -17.02%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.12%E -2.05%K -3.41%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-21 15:55
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.96%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.91%E -3.71%K -6.37%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-21 15:50
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.83%E -2.47%K -6.96%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.91%E -3.71%K -6.37%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-21 15:00
Everygame🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.93%E -4.62%K -13.86%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.91%E -3.71%K -6.37%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-21 15:01

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 62.20%	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.80%	1.8%	2026-04-21 15:55