Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic v Christopher O'Connell

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dino Prizmic (Local)

Prediction 94.34%1.06fair odd
EV +0.942%
Edge +0.880%
Kelly +13.46%
Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.87%94.36%94.46%97.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.021.07100.00%97.85%98.52%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Christopher O'Connell (Visit)

Prediction 5.66%17.66fair odd
EV +130.72%
Edge +3.21%
Kelly +3.29%
Growth +4.30%

assuming max odds 40.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.44%5.64%5.54%14.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.5017.5917.5040.7515.38%5.69%5.71%2.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dino Prizmic (Local): 94.34%; Christopher O'Connell (Visit): 5.66%. For Christopher O'Connell (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.66. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 40.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +130.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 97.56%EV -3.78%E -3.70%K -188.75%G +0.000%40.75I 2.45%NM 2.44%EV +130.72%E +3.21%K +3.29%G +4.30%0.5%2026-04-20 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.72%E -4.67%K -471.84%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +18.90%E +0.900%K +0.945%G +0.179%3.8%2026-04-20 17:55
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.72%E -4.67%K -471.84%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +18.90%E +0.900%K +0.945%G +0.179%3.8%2026-04-20 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -3.78%E -3.70%K -188.75%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +1.91%E +0.106%K +0.112%G +0.002%3.6%2026-04-20 17:53
Betway🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 94.74%EV -5.66%E -5.66%K +0.000%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.26%EV +1.91%E +0.106%K +0.112%G +0.002%5.6%2026-04-20 17:54
BoyleSports🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -2.83%E -2.75%K -94.39%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV -3.75%E -0.221%K -0.234%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-20 17:54
theScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.72%E -4.67%K -471.84%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -15.07%E -1.00%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-20 17:54
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.23%EV -4.72%E -4.67%K -471.84%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -40.55%E -3.86%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-20 17:54
Fliff🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.68%EV -1.89%E -1.82%K -47.21%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.32%EV -53.86%E -6.61%K -7.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-20 17:51
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV +0.942%E +0.880%K +13.46%G +0.127%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -63.20%E -9.72%K -11.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-20 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.02I 98.04%NM 97.24%35.97I 2.78%NM 2.76%0.8%2026-04-20 17:55