Language:English
Diego Dedura-Palomero v Benjamin Bonzi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Diego Dedura-Palomero (Local)
assuming max odds 2.45
Benjamin Bonzi (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.91
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diego Dedura-Palomero (Local): 43.33%; Benjamin Bonzi (Visit): 56.67%. For Benjamin Bonzi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -20.71%E -11.32%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +8.24%E +4.31%K +9.06%G +0.746% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -20.71%E -11.32%K -24.95%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +8.24%E +4.31%K +9.06%G +0.746% | 7.0% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -17.24%E -9.03%K -18.95%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV +0.307%E +0.174%K +0.399%G +0.001% | 8.9% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -13.34%E -6.67%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -0.826%E -0.472%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.01%E -4.29%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -11.18%E -5.45%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -3.09%E -1.81%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -15.51%E -7.95%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -3.66%E -2.15%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.68%E -2.13%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.49%E -3.94%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +4.86%E +2.01%K +3.42%G +0.166% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -8.19%E -5.06%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-21 13:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV +4.86%E +2.01%K +3.42%G +0.166% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -8.19%E -5.06%K -13.21%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-21 13:17 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.60%EV +5.72%E +2.35%K +3.97%G +0.227% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.40%EV -9.33%E -5.83%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-04-21 13:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV +6.16%E +2.51%K +4.25%G +0.261% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -10.46%E -6.62%K -18.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-21 13:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +3.99%E +1.66%K +2.85%G +0.114% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -12.16%E -7.85%K -22.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-21 13:01 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV +1.82%E +0.776%K +1.35%G +0.025% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -13.29%E -8.69%K -25.08%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-21 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -0.343%E -0.149%K -0.264%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -13.86%E -9.12%K -26.65%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-21 13:07 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.49% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.51% | 9.7% | 2026-04-21 13:20 |